Japonya\u2019da 29 May\u0131s ile biten haftada yerli hisse senetlerinde yabanc\u0131lardan net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f \u00a5491,2 milyar olarak kaydedildi. Bu, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki \u00a51.080,4 milyar net giri\u015fin tersine d\u00f6nmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, son raporlama d\u00f6neminde Japon hisselerinde s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi pozisyonlanmada bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu sert tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Japon hisseleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bir haftada \u00a51 trilyonun \u00fczerindeki net al\u0131mdan yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00a5500 milyar net sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7i\u015f, son d\u00f6nemdeki piyasa g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden birinin art\u0131k r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, uzun pozisyon maruziyetini azaltmak ve Nikkei 225 gibi endekslerde artan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesinin, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) giderek daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan politika duru\u015fu ve bunun sonucunda yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Japonya \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu son \u00e7eyrekte \u0131srarla %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrederken, yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 134 seviyesine de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kritik ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha zay\u0131f k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 beklentisiyle ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hisselerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6neliyor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, artan piyasa volatilitesinden fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcmanlardaki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Nikkei Volatilite Endeksi 16 civar\u0131nda, yani kay\u0131ts\u0131z bir seviyede bulunuyor; de\u011fi\u015fen sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bunun fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in Nikkei vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine uygun fiyatl\u0131, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, olas\u0131 \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak \u00fczere Topix endeksinde bear put spread stratejileri kuruyoruz. Bu strateji riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve endeksin aylar sonra ilk kez 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunar. Bu, sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade kademeli bir gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131ndaki fiyat hareketini and\u0131r\u0131yor; benzer \u015fekilde yabanc\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemi, Nikkei\u2019de haftalar i\u00e7inde %7\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izlemi\u015fti. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 piyasa zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi olma e\u011filiminde. Bu nedenle portf\u00f6ylerimizi daha savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fa g\u00f6re yeniden ayarl\u0131yor ve yabanc\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: Yabanc\u0131lar Japon hisselerinde \u00a5491,2 milyar net sat\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc. BOJ\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen yen ihracat k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; Nikkei\/Topix\u2019te putlarla savunma, olas\u0131 d\u00fczeltme bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}