NZD\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5860 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve Federal Rezerv yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1\u2019den fazla geriledi. Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan, enflasyonun Fed\u2019in %2 hedefin\u0259 \u00e7ok yava\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Logan ayr\u0131ca finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici (gev\u015fek), i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 ve ekonomik faaliyetin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu belirtti. Piyasalar art\u0131k politika beklentilerinde y\u00f6n tayini i\u00e7in cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar, ABD verilerinden de destek buldu; ISM Hizmet PMI may\u0131sta 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek (nisanda 53,6) k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. D\u00f6rt saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde NZD\/USD 0,5864\u2019ten i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (0,5892) ve 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (0,5929) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI ise 27 civar\u0131na gerileyerek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine indi. Diren\u00e7 0,5866\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 0,5870 ve 0,5880 seviyelerinde; destek ise 0,5857\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkililerinin daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re stratejimizi g\u00fcncelliyoruz. Enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrediyor; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikas\u0131n\u0131 piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalardaki i\u015flemlerimizin ana belirleyicisi konumunda.<\/p>\n
May\u0131sta 54,5 gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ISM Hizmet PMI verisi, ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ederek dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, may\u0131s sonundaki son PCE verilerine g\u00f6re \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun da Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonun bu birle\u015fimi, dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; veri piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir oynakl\u0131k tetikleyicisi olacak. Beklentiler istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 bin olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen rakam\u0131n bunun \u00fczerinde gelmesi, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu neredeyse kesin bi\u00e7imde peki\u015ftirecektir. Bu nedenle, beklenen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu temay\u0131 oynamak i\u00e7in NZD\/USD paritesini net bir ara\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira parite halihaz\u0131rda belirgin bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k sergiliyor. RSI 27 civar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda olsa da (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek), 0,5890 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirme e\u011filimindeyiz. 0,5857 destek seviyesinin kararl\u0131 \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in sinyalimiz olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, NZD\/USD 0,5860\u2019a inerek %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ISM Hizmet PMI 54,5 ile indirimi \u00f6teledi. G\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de; 0,5857 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49391\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}