Broadcom, mali ikinci \u00e7eyrekte beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde %5\u2019ten fazla geriledi. Gelir, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %48 art\u0131\u015fla 22,19 milyar dolara y\u00fckselerek konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn 70 milyon dolar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. D\u00fczeltilmi\u015f hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS) 2,44 dolar ile tahminleri 0,04 dolar a\u015ft\u0131. Yar\u0131 iletken gelirleri %79 art\u0131\u015fla 15,01 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karken, altyap\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %9 art\u0131\u015fla 7,18 milyar dolar oldu. \u015eirket, mali \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek gelirini 29,4 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu rakam\u0131n konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn 1 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirtildi. CrowdStrike ise 1,39 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelirle (beklentilerin 30 milyon dolar \u00fczerinde) ve 1,10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f EPS ile (0,03 dolar \u00fczerinde) sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %9\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
CrowdStrike ayr\u0131ca 1\u00c7\u2019de net yeni y\u0131ll\u0131k yinelenen gelirini (ARR) %32 art\u0131rarak 256 milyon dolara y\u00fckseltti, tam y\u0131l beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 revize etti ve 4\u2019e 1 hisse b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Broadcom\u2019un grafi\u011fi d\u00f6rt saatlik zaman diliminde 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, 50 periyotluk SMA 434 dolar civar\u0131nda; belirtilen seviyeler aras\u0131nda 420 dolar ve 405\u2013420 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir hacim b\u00f6lgesi yer al\u0131rken, 460 dolar daha yukar\u0131 bir referans noktas\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. CrowdStrike 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019y\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131 ve 50 periyotluk ortalamas\u0131nda destek buldu; ilave seviyeler olarak 645 dolar ve 620 dolar da i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n
AI ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7o sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bile piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hem Broadcom\u2019un hem de CrowdStrike\u2019\u0131n tahminleri a\u015f\u0131p ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015f yemesi bu e\u011filimi teyit ediyor. Bu da, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Broadcom taraf\u0131nda, yakla\u015fan bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyoruz. Mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir harekete i\u015faret ediyor; 1.430 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren bir hisse i\u00e7in bu olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oynakl\u0131k. Piyasan\u0131n \u201chaberi sat\u201d e\u011filimi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, burada prim satman\u0131n do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirilebilecek stratejiler aras\u0131nda, son tarihi zirvelerin \u00fczerine konumland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir iron condor veya basit bir bear call spread yer al\u0131yor. Geni\u015f piyasa volatilite endeksi VIX 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, bu y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatilite daha \u00e7ok bilan\u00e7oya \u00f6zg\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu sayede, hisse beklenmedik \u015fekilde sert y\u00fckselse bile riski tan\u0131mlayarak cazip primler toplanabilir.<\/p>\n
CrowdStrike, bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Beklenen bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 \u201cvolatilite \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; opsiyonlar\u0131n de\u011feri keskin bi\u00e7imde geriledi. Hisse, gelir tahminlerini a\u015fmas\u0131na ve y\u0131ll\u0131k yinelenen gelirde %33 b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ilk etapta 310 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu geri \u00e7ekilmenin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru olmas\u0131 ve opsiyon maliyetlerinin art\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulunmas\u0131, potansiyel bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Mevcut destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na bull put spread kurmak veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ilk negatif reaksiyonun abart\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve hissenin daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu olgu yeni de\u011fil; \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyreklerde Microsoft ve Meta Platforms\u2019ta benzer tepkiler g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Tarihsel olarak, dot-com d\u00f6neminde bile, piyasa liderleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek beklentilere yaln\u0131zca paralel ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler ya\u015fayabiliyordu. Bu nedenle, bilan\u00e7o sonucunun y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ziyade bu olaylar etraf\u0131ndaki volatiliteyi i\u015flem yapmak daha do\u011fru bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bilan\u00e7o iyi, hisse neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor? Broadcom ve CrowdStrike beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131 ama sert sat\u0131ld\u0131: \u201chaberi sat\u201d temas\u0131. Broadcom\u2019da y\u00fcksek implied vol ile prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; CrowdStrike\u2019da vol \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle destekten al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}