Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 daha da so\u011fumazsa bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Logan, enflasyonun %2\u2019ye ula\u015fmak yerine %2\u2019nin orta band\u0131na do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in hedefine d\u00f6nmesinin \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n
Logan ayr\u0131ca, budanm\u0131\u015f ortalama (trimmed-mean) enflasyonun \u015fu anda g\u00fcvenilir bir sinyal olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n destekleyici kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Logan, ekonomik faaliyetin h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini ve \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cu\u00e7tu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi frenlemedi\u011fini ekleyerek, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faizin artmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nmedi\u011fi, bunun yerine %2\u2019nin orta band\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek daha net hale geliyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE raporu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,9\u2019da yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 gev\u015femedi\u011fini do\u011fruluyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, ekonomi ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, faiz vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa \u015fu anda eyl\u00fcle kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %20 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7mek zorunda kalma riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu oran fazlas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Mevcut para politikas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fi bitirecek kadar k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kken, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fine pozisyon almak g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 kay\u0131ts\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksi 14 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyrediyor. Bu durum, piyasa daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na uyanmadan \u00f6nce ucuz maliyetle koruma sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019in, %2,5\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini kolayl\u0131kla zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek endeksler \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip buluyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7 sinyali veriyor. Daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin gerekli olabilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyorsak, dolar daha g\u00fcvercin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda avantaj sa\u011flayabilir. Dolar uzun pozisyonu, \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yurt i\u00e7i politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu deseni daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2021 sonlar\u0131nda piyasa, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede agresif d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamakta yava\u015f kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son istihdam raporu, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3,8\u2019de kal\u0131rken 210 binlik sa\u011flam istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Fed\u2019e s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131yor. Bu kez de haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalanmamal\u0131 ve varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde riskin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019den \u015fahin sinyal: Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Logan, enflasyonun %2\u2019ye d\u00f6nmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, gerekirse y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor; dolar ve hedging \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}