ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019ta Nisan\u2019daki 53,6\u2019dan 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesinin Hazine tahvili faizlerini desteklemesiyle 99,50 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc DXY 99,55\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,1600 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, GBP\/USD 1,3420\u2019ye do\u011fru geriledi; USD\/JPY 160,00 b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Emtialarda alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen faizler ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n faiz getirmeyen metali bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.440 dolara inerken, WTI ham petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 y\u00fckselerek yeniden 96,00 dolar b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Takvim, 4 Haziran\u2019da CH T\u00dcFE, Euro B\u00f6lgesi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, ABD Challenger i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma verileri, ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 verimlilik, ABD birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri ve JP nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 verilerini i\u00e7eriyor. 5 Haziran\u2019da Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH ve istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi verilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ortalama saatlik \u00fccretler ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan istihdam raporu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; ABD taraf\u0131nda ise tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 g\u00fcncelleniyor; Kanada ayr\u0131ca Ivey PMI verisini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan ABD kaynakl\u0131 hafif tatl\u0131 (light sweet) bir g\u00f6sterge olan WTI, arz-talep dinamikleri, OPEC kota kararlar\u0131 ve API ile EIA\u2019n\u0131n stok raporlar\u0131ndan etkileniyor; iki seri, zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde genellikle birbirinden %1 i\u00e7inde seyrediyor. OPEC 12 \u00fclkeden olu\u015furken, OPEC+ buna OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan 10 \u00fclkeyi ekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi kayda de\u011fer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergiliyor ve 104,50 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, May\u0131s ISM Hizmet PMI verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir 53,8 ile gelmesi gibi son verilerle besleniyor ve ABD ekonomisinde s\u00fcregelen dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Devam eden bu g\u00f6reli ekonomik \u00fcst\u00fcn performans, ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini destekliyor ve dolar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla birlikte, di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmada f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,0900\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131rken, GBP\/USD 1,2700 seviyesini test ediyor. Yakla\u015fan Avrupa veya Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verileri belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu paritelerde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yol a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131, 156,00 \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam kalan USD\/JPY i\u00e7in temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ultra-gev\u015fek politikas\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fma sinyali vermi\u015f olsa da, h\u0131z\u0131 Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015funa k\u0131yasla yava\u015f. BoJ daha agresif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m patikas\u0131na i\u015faret edene kadar bu i\u015flemin cazip kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Emtialar cephesinde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek getiriler, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.350 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren alt\u0131n i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klar, reel faizlerin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6receli olarak zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde; mevcut tablo bu kal\u0131b\u0131n devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lave zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine bakaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan WTI ham petrol, K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli endi\u015felere kar\u015f\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ABD talebinin a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tonda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Haftal\u0131k stok raporlar\u0131 tutarl\u0131 \u00e7ekili\u015flere i\u015faret ederken, son EIA raporu 4,2 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonuna girerken talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel destek, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m stratejisini uygulanabilir k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda olacak. Ge\u00e7en ayki rapor 272 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015f ve Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, muhtemelen dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekler ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi riske duyarl\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fle tahvil faizleri t\u0131rmand\u0131, DXY 99,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD bask\u0131da, USD\/JPY y\u00fcksek. Alt\u0131n gerilerken WTI y\u00fckseldi; g\u00f6zler ABD istihdam verilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}