Filipinler\u2019de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6nceki %7,2 seviyesinden %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019\u0131n (BSP) %2,0\u2013%4,0 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n daha da \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zlanma; daha y\u00fcksek g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla i\u00e7 piyasada artan yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 ve s\u00fcregelen kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor ve man\u015fet enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen, i\u00e7 piyasada yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme, baz\u0131 g\u0131da kalemlerinde daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 okumalar ve elektrik-su gibi kamu hizmeti tarifelerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileme sonras\u0131 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k (ayl\u0131k) ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smen politika taraf\u0131ndan filtrelendi\u011fi ifade ediliyor; zira perakende fiyat enflasyonu, s\u00fcbvansiyon deste\u011fine ve ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n (pass-through) derecesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131la\u015fabiliyor. \u00d6te yandan, BSP ve Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BI) bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde i\u00e7 piyasa faizlerinde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitmesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s enflasyon raporu \u00f6ncesinde, %8\u2019i a\u015fabilecek bir veri beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu belirgin s\u0131\u00e7rama b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek seyreden yak\u0131t maliyetleri ve zay\u0131flayan peso kaynakl\u0131. Piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2-4 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir rakama haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019\u0131 (BSP) neredeyse kesin olarak kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlayacakt\u0131r. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 dizginlemek i\u00e7in BSP\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda i\u00e7 piyasa faizlerini daha da art\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, benzer ekonomik ko\u015fullarda ge\u00e7mi\u015fte at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlarla da uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Filipin pesosunun son d\u00f6nemdeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 59,50 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, ithalat\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak sorunu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Son veriler, ge\u00e7en ay pirincin perakende fiyat\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6sterdi. Bu unsurlar, merkez bankas\u0131ndan \u015fahin bir politika tepkisi gelmesi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir senaryoyu 2022-2023 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde, enflasyonun %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. BSP, ekonomiyi istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in toplam 450 baz puana ula\u015fan agresif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 serisiyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyim, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamak i\u00e7in temel arac\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaktan \u00e7ekinmeyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, daha y\u00fcksek faizlere pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. BSP\u2019nin ad\u0131mlar\u0131na en duyarl\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcm olmas\u0131 nedeniyle 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swaplarda sabit \u00f6deme (pay fixed) stratejisi cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu i\u015flem, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n beklentimiz do\u011frultusunda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde do\u011frudan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u0130lave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan pesoya destek vermesi beklenir. D\u00f6viz forwardlar\u0131 veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) \u00fczerinden PHP\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. BSP\u2019den gelecek net bir sinyal, kurun mevcut seviyelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak BSP toplant\u0131lar\u0131 piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu ortam opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli olabilir. USD\/PHP paritesinde kritik politika duyuru tarihleri etraf\u0131nda straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun oynakl\u0131k stratejilerinin temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Filipinler\u2019de: May\u0131s enflasyonu %8\u2019i a\u015farak BSP\u2019nin %2-4 band\u0131n\u0131 iyice zorluyor. G\u0131da, yak\u0131t ve zay\u0131f peso bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; piyasa ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Swap\/opsiyon \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}