Endonezya, Danantara egemen varl\u0131k fonunun i\u015ftiraki olan Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) \u00fczerinden emtia ihracat\u0131n\u0131 devlet y\u00f6nlendirmeli bir y\u00f6netim modeline kayd\u0131r\u0131yor; kapsam k\u00f6m\u00fcr, palm ya\u011f\u0131 ve ferroalyajlar\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. De\u011fi\u015fim, icras\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r operasyonel gereklilikler getirirken, k\u0131sa vadede devreye al\u0131m s\u00fcrecinin ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratabilmesi ve fiyat sinyallerini bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rabilmesi nedeniyle rupiah i\u00e7in riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor; k\u00fcresel benchmark\u2019lar referans noktas\u0131 olmaya devam etse bile. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 bu belirsizlikleri zaten yans\u0131t\u0131yor; para birimi, daha zay\u0131f makro zeminle birlikte b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerine k\u0131yasla geride kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f hesaplar belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131: ticaret fazlas\u0131 marttaki 3,3 milyar dolardan nisan ay\u0131nda 89 milyon dolara gerilerken, d\u00f6viz rezervleri nisan itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,3 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; buna kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da e\u015flik ediyor. Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank Indonesia) politika deste\u011fi sa\u011flad\u0131; may\u0131sta politika faizini 50 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli carry\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek \u00fczere y\u00fcksek getirili SRBI\u2019nin ek ihra\u00e7lar\u0131yla FX \u00f6nlemlerini geni\u015fletti. Orta vadede sonu\u00e7lar uygulama kalitesine ba\u011fl\u0131: etkin bir hayata ge\u00e7irme d\u0131\u015f istikrar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilirken, politika a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fi zay\u0131flat\u0131p para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeni devlet \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki emtia politikas\u0131n\u0131n Rupiah \u00fczerinde kayda de\u011fer belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) sistemine ge\u00e7i\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fcksek uygulama riski bar\u0131nd\u0131ran b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu ortam, USD\/IDR opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, may\u0131sta d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin 150 milyon dolarl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, son iki y\u0131ldaki istikrarl\u0131 fazlalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu durum, yeni emtia politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ilk aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz rezervlerinin ge\u00e7en ay 134 milyar dolara gerilemesiyle birlikte, bu makro bask\u0131n\u0131n Rupiah\u2019\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan tutaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Politikan\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ya da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131na dair ikili (binary) risk nedeniyle, korunma ya da spek\u00fclasyon ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon talebinde art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k bu kadar y\u00fcksekken d\u00fcz (outright) opsiyonlar pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, USD\/IDR call spread al\u0131m\u0131 maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlarken Rupiah zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir. Alternatif olarak, olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara zaten girdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen primi toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda kalabal\u0131kla\u015fm\u0131\u015f uzun (long) USD\/IDR pozisyonlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinliyiz; bu durum, herhangi bir olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda pariteyi sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin DSI uygulamas\u0131na dair net bir ileti\u015fimi veya ABD dolar\u0131nda daha geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir yumu\u015fama bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (squeeze) tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli opsiyonlarla Rupiah g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik bir miktar maruziyet korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla yerinde olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n son faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla faizin %6,75\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, Rupiah\u2019\u0131n carry cazibesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde iyile\u015ftirerek para birimi i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu, y\u00fcksek getiri ve olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan birlikte fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/IDR forward puanlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131\u2014giderek daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bununla birlikte, sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131 verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; ani bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, olumlu carry\u2019den gelen deste\u011fi h\u0131zla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Endonezya, DSI ile k\u00f6m\u00fcr-palm ya\u011f\u0131-ferroalyaj ihracat\u0131n\u0131 devlet kontrol\u00fcne al\u0131yor: ge\u00e7i\u015f aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 ticareti bozup fiyat sinyallerini bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, daralan d\u0131\u015f denge ve rezerv kayb\u0131 Rupiah riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}