ABD dolar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 99,50 civar\u0131ndaki iki ay\u0131n zirvelerine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve 100,00 seviyesini g\u00fcndemde tuttu. Destek; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizlik ve Beyaz Saray\u2019dan gelen devam eden politika kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcden gelirken, piyasalar 2025\u2019e ili\u015fkin Federal Rezerv (Fed) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de yeniden fiyatlad\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerini art\u0131rarak, daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams, enflasyonun \u201colduk\u00e7a\u201d y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak nitelendirdi; enerji maliyetlerinin gev\u015femesini beklese de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon risklerine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncel veriler de hareketi destekledi: ADP, May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde 122 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bildirirken, ISM Hizmetler PMI 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ayn\u0131 ankette \u00d6denen Fiyatlar Endeksi 71,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak A\u011fustos 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. DXY en son 99,52\u2019deydi; 99,00\u2019un hemen alt\u0131ndaki 55, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. RSI 60 civar\u0131nda, ADX ise 18\u2019e yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 100,39\u2019da; ard\u0131ndan 100,64 ve 101,98 izleniyor. Destekler 99,50\u2019de; 55 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 98,95 civar\u0131nda; 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 98,56 ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 98,60 b\u00f6lgesinde; ard\u0131ndan 97,62 ve 95,00\u2019lerin ortas\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergiliyor; h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 105,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 106,00 seviyesini test etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar\u0131 destekleyen inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ile jeopolitik unsurlar\u0131n birle\u015fimine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; bu da do\u011frudan enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Nitekim Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari\u2019nin ge\u00e7en haftaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ederek olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin gecikebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, enflasyonun kat\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funu do\u011fruluyor. En son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir rakam bekleyen analistleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu dinami\u011fin yeniden devreye girdi\u011fini ve dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir arka r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131na ili\u015fkin anlat\u0131 da yeniden belirginle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Ge\u00e7en Cuma yay\u0131mlanan May\u0131s istihdam raporu, ekonominin 215 bin yeni istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu veri beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131k ara a\u015farken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck %3,8 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor; son PMI verileri ekonomik daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131zda, Euro ve Yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Beklenen yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in UUP gibi dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fu korurken gelir elde etmeyi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ekonomik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda sert hareket potansiyeli g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, volatilitede de f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz paritelerinde z\u0131mni volatilite y\u00fckseliyor ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. EUR\/USD paritesinde, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir sal\u0131n\u0131m yapmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan straddle stratejileri al\u0131yoruz; bu, ayn\u0131 zamanda beklenmedik politika s\u00fcrprizlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir koruma i\u015flevi de g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar, jeopolitik risk ve y\u00fckselen enerjiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: DXY 100 e\u015fi\u011fine\/\u00fczerine y\u00f6nelirken Fed\u2019de \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlan\u0131yor. ADP-ISM ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 ralliyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}