ABD Verileri ve Jeopolitik Riskler Dolar\u0131 Desteklerken EUR\/USD Bask\u0131 Alt\u0131nda<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, \u00f6nceki seans\u0131 neredeyse yatay tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin dolar\u0131 desteklemesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin \u201cye\u015fil para\u201dya talebi canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla euro zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite 1,1607 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 99,45 \u00e7evresinde seyrederek son d\u00f6nemdeki bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131sta 122 bin ile nisandan (105 bin) y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, 117 binlik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu. ISM Hizmet PMI 53,6\u2019dan 54,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 53,8\u2019lik tahmini geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, nihai S&P Global Hizmet PMI 50,9\u2019dan 50,7\u2019ye gerileyerek 51 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch verileri, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki arz kesintileri ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerine etkisini de\u011ferlendirirken, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerin may\u0131sta enflasyonun %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini (Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya y\u00f6nelece\u011fi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 80 ekonomistin 74\u2019\u00fc, ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn EUR\/USD paritesini 1,1600\u2019e do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itti\u011fini izliyoruz. Son ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler bu hareketi destekliyor. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 ve ABD faizlerinin cazibesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. \u00d6te yandan Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde y\u00fckselen enflasyon, ECB\u2019yi kendi faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almaya zorluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131ndaki beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, bize g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede rotas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in fazla bir neden b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Piyasada aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin %40 olarak fiyatlanmas\u0131 da dolara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel talep sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu durum, ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satman\u0131n veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n uygun bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in bu yakas\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %3,2 ile gelmesi gerilimi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu seviye ECB \u00fczerinde ad\u0131m atma bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131k neredeyse tamamen beklenirken, para piyasalar\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. As\u0131l soru, bunun tek seferlik bir ayarlama m\u0131 yoksa enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha agresif bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc z\u0131t kuvvetler nedeniyle kur volatilitesinde belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Yak\u0131n zamanda 13\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerileyen VIX endeksine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, genel piyasa rehaveti y\u00fcksek ve bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riski de hesaba katmak gerekiyor; bu risk petrol fiyatlar\u0131na prim ekliyor. Tarihsel olarak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde tansiyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman y\u00f6nelimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu da dolar i\u00e7in ilave bir destek katman\u0131, euro i\u00e7in ise ilave bir bask\u0131 unsuru yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esiyor: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ADP\/ISM verileri ve Orta Do\u011fu tansiyonu EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1600\u2019e iterken, Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201dde. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu art\u0131nca ECB\u2019nin haziranda 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor; volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}