USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 seviyesini test etmesi, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 28 Nisan-27 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde pariteyi bask\u0131lamak amac\u0131yla rekor d\u00fczeyde 11,735 trilyon yen harcamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan resmi m\u00fcdahale riskinin alg\u0131lanan d\u00fczeyini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve otoritelerin bu seviye etraf\u0131ndaki hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi. Kur yeniden 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken bu d\u00f6nem piyasaya net bir referans noktas\u0131 sunuyor; ge\u00e7mi\u015f operasyonlar, yenin daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koyma kapasitesi ve iste\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, uzun vadeli faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin piyasan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentilerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, enflasyona ili\u015fkin risk profilinin ekonomik aktivitedeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerden daha yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. T\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131nda swap e\u011frisi, 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %1,00\u2019a y\u00fckseltilmesine ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %86 olarak ima ediyor; bunun ard\u0131ndan da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00 seviyesini test etmesini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; bu, Japon yetkililerin yen almak \u00fczere devreye girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Otoriteler, bu b\u00f6lgeyi savunmak i\u00e7in Nisan sonu-May\u0131s sonu aras\u0131nda rekor 11,7 trilyon yen harcad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olu\u015fturuyor ve paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda da daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fun sinyalini veriyor; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik risklerden ziyade enflasyon endi\u015felerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Son veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor: Tokyo\u2019nun May\u0131s 2026 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,2 ile BoJ\u2019nin %2 hedefinde veya \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 25\u2019inci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k aya i\u015faret etti. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve yen i\u00e7in destekleyici.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentileri art\u0131k daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika patikas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor; swaplar 16 Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor. Toplamda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Faiz politikas\u0131ndaki bu kayma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yen a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha destekleyici bir zemin g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
160,00 civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 ve yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenme potansiyelinin artmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in USD\/JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131 satman\u0131n makul bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Bu strateji, anlaml\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden yararlanarak prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Alternatif olarak, paritede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak da tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160,00 yeniden testte: Nisan-May\u0131s\u2019ta 11,7 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale haf\u0131zas\u0131 riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. BoJ \u015fahinle\u015fiyor; swaplar Haziran\u2019da +25 bp (%86) ve 12 ayda +75 bp fiyatl\u0131yor. 160\u2019ta call sat\u0131\u015f\/put al\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49368\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}