Dolar Endeksi, ABD tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve yeniden t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini desteklemesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, iFlow verileri USD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik FX giri\u015flerine i\u015faret etti; ayn\u0131 zamanda tahviller ve hisselerde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f pozisyonlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Trump, kapsaml\u0131 yeni g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri \u00f6nererek ticaret ve enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve dolara ilave destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Plan, 60 ticaret orta\u011f\u0131ndan ithalata en az %10 vergi getirilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Kanada, Meksika, AB, Tayvan ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k %10 oran\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore, Brezilya ve \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019den %12,5 tahsil edilecek. \u00d6nlemler hemen y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmeyecek; nihai hale getirilmeden \u00f6nce kamuoyu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ve duru\u015fmalara tabi olacak.<\/p>\n
Ak\u0131m verileri, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n DKK, CAD, NZD ve TRY\u2019de yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ard\u0131ndan BRL ve CLP\u2019nin geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, giri\u015flerde USD, JPY, MXN ve ZAR \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; EUR ve GBP\u2019de de giri\u015fler izlendi. iFlow Mood, haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda dengelense de hisse senetlerinden s\u00fcren \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ve \u00e7ekirdek devlet tahvillerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep nedeniyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u201crisk-off\u201d kald\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek k\u00fcresel hisseler ve ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti. Makro verilerde \u00c7in\u2019in hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karken, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortamda, daha y\u00fcksek getiriler ve jeopolitik belirsizlikle beslenen ABD dolar\u0131nda belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) son d\u00f6nemde 106,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bu geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 talebi yans\u0131tt\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrecek dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc ve genel piyasa riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimine g\u00f6re t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nerilen tarifeler, ba\u015fl\u0131ca ABD ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n para birimleri i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle ihracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomilerde, \u00f6nemli riskler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle Kanada dolar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz; USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3800 seviyesinin \u00f6tesine zay\u0131flad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar USD\/CAD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir ya da kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6steren Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerinde vadeli kontratlarda sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Risk-off duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisse piyasalar\u0131nda net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor. VIX endeksi son iki haftada %35\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 20\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye tarihsel olarak piyasa stresiyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Ticaret gerilimleri t\u0131rman\u0131rken olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in S&P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD tahvil getirilerinde ise \u00e7eli\u015fkili bask\u0131lar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131 getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterken, tarifelerden kaynaklanan enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131 itiyor. Bu da faiz piyasas\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. Belirli bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ZN) straddle gibi opsiyon stratejileri etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na do\u011frudan destek veriyor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak alt\u0131 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Bu e\u011filimin devam etmesini bekliyoruz; petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar veya enerji odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip bir i\u015flem fikri sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri ve jeopolitik risklerle 106,50 \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u0131rmand\u0131; iFlow USD\/JPY giri\u015fleri, risk-off\u2019u do\u011frulad\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n tarife plan\u0131 enflasyon-ticaret riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc; petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fi piyasalar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49366"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49366\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}