ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) 29 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 7,974 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu rakam, piyasadaki 4 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bu gerileme, EIA\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re stoklarda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha sert bir haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Rapor, hareketi ayn\u0131 haftaya ili\u015fkin konsens\u00fcs tahminlere k\u0131yasla daha derin bir stok \u00e7ekilmesi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 milyon varile yakla\u015fan son ham petrol stok \u00e7ekilmesini, piyasa beklentilerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cbo\u011fa\u201d sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, yaz sezonuna girerken bir\u00e7ok modellemenin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha s\u0131cak bir talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa, mevcut t\u00fcketim seviyelerini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, tarihsel olarak yak\u0131t t\u00fcketimini art\u0131ran yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunun ba\u015flamas\u0131yla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Memorial Day tatiline ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel seyahat verilerinin, 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla ara\u00e7la kat edilen milde %4 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini; bunun da benzin talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini not ediyoruz. Bu e\u011filimin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye devam etmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda ise, bu talebi dengeleyebilecek bir s\u00fcrpriz beklemiyoruz. Kritik OPEC+ \u00fcyeleri, piyasa istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 koruma taahh\u00fctlerini yineledi. Bu arz disiplini, fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD rafineri kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131 da izliyoruz; oran %95,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bu y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu y\u00fcksek faaliyet d\u00fczeyi, yak\u0131t talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in gerekli ve ham petrolde stok \u00e7ekilmelerinin \u00f6nemli bir itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olmaya devam edecek. Makro zemin de destekleyici kal\u0131yor; May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi 53,1 ile geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu dinamikler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6rt ila alt\u0131 haftada ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in A\u011fustos vadeli WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m taraf\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da, y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korurken prim geliri elde etmek ad\u0131na uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde s\u00fcrpriz bo\u011fa sinyali: EIA\u2019ya g\u00f6re ham petrol stoklar\u0131 7,97 milyon varil eridi; 4 milyon beklenti a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Yaz talebi, %95,1 rafineri kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve OPEC+ disiplini fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49362"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49362\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}