Alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesi ve faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftirmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. XAU\/USD 4.447 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu hafta \u015fu ana kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise 99,45 seviyesine yak\u0131n, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,25 art\u0131da seyretti; piyasalar Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunu bekliyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta 122 bin artarak Nisan\u2019daki 105 binden y\u00fckseldi ve 117 binlik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; ISM Hizmet PMI da 53,6\u2019dan 54,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 53,8 tahmininin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019i hedef alan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u0130ran balistik f\u00fczesini ve \u0130HA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fini, ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019nda bir \u0130ran askeri kara kontrol istasyonunu vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Hazine tahvili getirileri, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklememesi ve Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte, alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, Bollinger Bantlar\u0131 SMA orta \u00e7izgisinin (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.568 dolar) alt\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 ayr\u0131ca 4.752 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde. Destek 4.384 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunurken, RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 39, ADX ise 25 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve yak\u0131n vadede en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye devam ediyor. 99,45 civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam duran g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, de\u011ferli metalin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki temel r\u00fczgar. Bu ortam, alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130zledi\u011fimiz bir sonraki ana g\u00fcndem maddesi, bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu. Ge\u00e7en ayki rapor 250 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011finden, bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik bahisleri muhtemelen daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. Veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine put opsiyonu almak temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, maksimum riski \u00f6denen primle net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 4.384 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyri ve son T\u00dcFE (CPI) verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e i\u015faret etmesi, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini destekliyor. Enflasyon, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n gev\u015feme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 te\u015fvik bulunuyor. Bu arka plan, daha y\u00fcksek getirileri ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekleyerek, getiri \u00fcretmeyen alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Daha az agresif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne sahip yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, bear call spread (ay\u0131 call spread) kurmak, alt\u0131n 4.568 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece gelir elde etmenin bir yolunu sunuyor. Fiyat\u0131n bir sonraki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamlesinden \u00f6nce yatayda konsolide olmas\u0131 halinde bu strateji etkili olabilir. Benzer bir dinami\u011fi 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fin aksine, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki mevcut jeopolitik gerilimler alt\u0131na bir destek sa\u011flam\u0131yor. Bunun yerine, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 do\u011frudan ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor. Bu durum, dolar\u0131 tercih edilen savunma varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 haline getirerek, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel \u00e7ekicili\u011fini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri ve \u0130ran gerilimi dolar lehine. XAU\/USD 4.447\u2019de, haftal\u0131k %2 ekside; g\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de, 4.384 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49361\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}