USD\/JPY, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerine ra\u011fmen 160 seviyesine yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD tahvil getirileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan yeni gerilimler Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi. M\u00fcdahale, tek ayda toplam 11,7 trilyon yen ile en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k aksiyon olurken; parite, muhtemelen 30 Nisan ve 6 May\u0131s\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen i\u015flemlerden bu yana ilk kez yeniden 160 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu tablo, m\u00fcdahalenin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f makro arka plana ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bu arka plan\u0131n yen lehine d\u00f6nmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol dinamikleri yeniden bir risk unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ham petrol, m\u00fcdahale penceresinin ard\u0131ndan gerilemi\u015fti ancak yeniden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti: 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in OIS fiyatlamas\u0131nda m\u00fcdahaleden bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 5\u20136 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131k %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve Nisan ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede. BoJ\u2019dan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor; ABD getirileri USD\/JPY\u2019yi h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilse de, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi birka\u00e7 \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck rakam\u201d ile s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan sonu ve May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda Japon otoritelerinin rekor \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisinin ge\u00e7ici kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; zira USD\/JPY halihaz\u0131rda yeniden 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun temel nedeni, ABD tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fcksek seyriyle Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutan temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fmemesi. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD enflasyon verisi, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %3,6 seviyesinde yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitmeden \u00f6nce beklemesini destekleyen bir zemin olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa art\u0131k m\u00fcdahalenin \u00f6tesine bakarak do\u011frudan BoJ\u2019dan destek ar\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un Haziran ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmada belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bug\u00fcn, 3 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla, gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 en az 10 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in %85 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %40 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, USD\/JPY\u2019de ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. BoJ\u2019dan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 parite i\u00e7in bir \u201ctavan\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 160-161 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya oynamay\u0131 riskli hale getiriyor. Bu beklenen tavan\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu satmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentili call spread kurmak uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, BoJ\u2019un Mart 2024\u2019teki ilk tarihi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, ancak merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ton de\u011fi\u015fimi zamanla Dolar\u2019\u0131n momentumunu yava\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer bir desenin \u015fimdi de g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi; BoJ\u2019dan gelecek teyitli ad\u0131m\u0131n sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu da h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan %11,2 civar\u0131ndaki USD\/JPY z\u0131mni volatilitesinin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda gerilemeye ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ana risk, BoJ\u2019un faizleri sabit tutarak g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m USD\/JPY\u2019de sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, 162 civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli ve g\u00f6rece ucuz baz\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 portf\u00f6yde tutmak temkinli bir hamle olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekor 11,7 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale bile yetmedi: USD\/JPY yeniden 160\u2019ta. ABD getirileri ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Dolar\u2019\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor; piyasalar BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na odaklan\u0131rken y\u00fckseli\u015fin 160-161\u2019de tavan yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}