USD\/CHF \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 0,7900 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ile daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verilerinin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck kazanc\u0131na y\u00f6neldi. ADP verisine g\u00f6re \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta 122 bin artt\u0131; Nisan\u2019daki 105 binin ve 117 binlik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Mart 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f oldu. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) seans i\u00e7inde %0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 99,47 civar\u0131nda, son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketinin \u00fcst b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan JOLTS verisi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelerek May\u0131s 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etti. <\/p>\n
ABD aktivite sinyalleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: nihai S&P Global Hizmetler PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 50,9\u2019dan 50,7\u2019ye gerileyerek 51 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ISM Hizmetler PMI ise 53,6\u2019dan 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 53,8 tahminini a\u015ft\u0131. Odak, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine (NFP) kay\u0131yor. Ekonomistler May\u0131s\u2019ta 85 binlik art\u0131\u015f bekliyor (Nisan: 115 bin). Petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon riskleri g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken, bu veri Fed beklentilerini \u015fekillendirebilir. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE\u2019nin May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi (Nisan: %0,6) bekleniyor. SNB, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yineledi; jeopolitik g\u00fcndem de ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 sonland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesinin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fini ve 0,7900 seviyesinin \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, sa\u011flam i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri nedeniyle artan g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle destek bulan g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131. Bu tablo, paritede yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede odak noktam\u0131z, 5 Haziran Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu. May\u0131s\u2019ta 122 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden beklenti \u00fczeri ADP verisi, NFP i\u00e7in 85 binlik tahminde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da bu \u015fahin alg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re 17 Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %12\u2019ye kadar geriledi. Bu oran, bir ay \u00f6nce %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Frank\u2019a tolerans g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fine dair net sinyaller veriyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun yaln\u0131zca %0,8 seviyesinde beklenmesi ve %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, SNB\u2019ye kur piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Schlegel\u2019in ge\u00e7en haftaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, bu g\u00fcvercin e\u011filimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde korundu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji haline getiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, NFP sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert harekette kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunarken, verinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde zay\u0131f gelmesi durumunda potansiyel zararlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Belirgin politika farklar\u0131, paritenin t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CHF i\u00e7in mevcut 0,7900 seviyesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,9150 olan be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, uzun vadeli \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7lerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmadan \u00f6nce paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket alan\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Mevcut seviyeleri, daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyon i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f b\u00f6lgesi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,7900\u2019de: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ADP\/JOLTS dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutabilir. SNB g\u00fcvercin, m\u00fcdahaleye a\u00e7\u0131k; al\u0131m opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}