ABD i\u00e7in ISM Hizmetler \u00d6denen Fiyatlar endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta bir \u00f6nceki aydaki 70,7 seviyesinden 71,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7inde girdi maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s verisi ayl\u0131k bazda 0,6 puan artarak g\u00f6stergenin halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fcksek seyreden seviyesini daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasalar, \u00f6denen fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin yak\u0131n vadede hizmet enflasyonunu daha yap\u0131\u015fkan h\u00e2le getirip getirmeyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirecek.<\/p>\n
Son ISM hizmetler fiyat verisi, ekonominin en b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca y\u00fcksek kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu veri, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki anlat\u0131y\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimlerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 ve hatta bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dahi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in SOFR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 olanlar gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu ISM raporu, May\u0131s istihdam raporunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 240 bin yeni istihdamla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in fazla bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Fed politikas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 kilit g\u00f6sterge olan 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin, tepki olarak son d\u00f6nem zirvelerini test etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde, faizlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyretmesi \u015firket de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Enflasyon endi\u015felerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Nasdaq 100 endeksi \u00fczerine sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda da f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 durumunda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenir. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolarda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, bu i\u015flemi cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu dinamik, yap\u0131\u015fkan hizmet enflasyonunun Fed\u2019i defalarca harekete ge\u00e7meye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019deki enflasyonist ortama olduk\u00e7a benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde Fed\u2019in erken bir \u201cpivot\u201d yapaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan piyasalar cezaland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi de benzer bir rehavet riski g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir yeniden fiyatlamaya pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ISM Hizmetler \u00d6denen Fiyatlar May\u0131s\u2019ta 70,7\u2019den 71,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 ve yap\u0131\u015fkan hizmet enflasyonu! Bu, Fed\u2019in erken gev\u015femesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r; faizler y\u00fcksek, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}