ABD fabrika sipari\u015fleri Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %4,8 artarak piyasan\u0131n %4,6\u2019l\u0131k beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Veri, ay boyunca imalat mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talepte ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, beklentilere k\u0131yasla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. Man\u015fet rakamla birlikte ek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar veya \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nem revizyonlar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131ndaki fabrika sipari\u015flerinde beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki %4,8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde altta yatan g\u00fcce i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da talebin \u00f6nceki de\u011ferlendirmelere k\u0131yasla daha iyi korundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, sanayi ekonomisinin yaz d\u00f6nemine ivmeyle girdi\u011fine dair bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin en son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisiyle de uyumlu. Endeks, 50,5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 51,2 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu veriler aras\u0131ndaki tutarl\u0131l\u0131k, ekonomik aktivitenin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Art\u0131k tek seferlik bir okuma de\u011fil, potansiyel bir trend s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,1 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini korudu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aktivite Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz indirimi konusunda daha temkinli olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Nitekim vadeli piyasalar da \u015fimdiden tepki verdi: CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu hafta %60\u2019tan %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. K\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi penceresinin kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, s\u00fcregelen ekonomik geni\u015flemenin yaratabilece\u011fi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in XLI gibi sanayi ve temel malzeme ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Daha geni\u015f piyasa maruziyeti i\u00e7in S&P 500 endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na oynayan bir konumlanma sunuyor. Bu strateji, \u015fimdilik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin faiz endi\u015felerinden a\u011f\u0131r basaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgide kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, getirilerin y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcze benzer \u015fekilde, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri s\u00fcrprizlerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinde kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu senaryoya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 da kullanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD fabrika sipari\u015fleri Nisan\u2019da %4,8 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; imalatta momentum g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. ISM PMI uyumlu. Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, Fed\u2019in indirimi geciktirebilir; Eyl\u00fcl ihtimali d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sanayi ETF\u2019leri long, tahvil short.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49352\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}