ABD S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI may\u0131sta 51,5 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek 51,7 olan piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin alt\u0131nda gelen bu sonu\u00e7, ay boyunca imalat ve hizmet faaliyetlerinin toplam\u0131nda ivmenin bir miktar yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapman\u0131n talepte bir so\u011fumaya m\u0131 yoksa ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131\u011fa m\u0131 i\u015faret etti\u011fini tartacak.<\/p>\n
Son Bile\u015fik PMI verisi 51,5 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131 ve son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en yava\u015f geni\u015flemesine i\u015faret etti. Bize g\u00f6re bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ekonomik ivmenin zay\u0131fl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine dair net bir sinyal. Bu durumun, Federal Rezerv\u2019in y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde e\u011filim g\u00f6stermesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ait son istihdam raporunda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7\u2019ye gerilemesiyle birlikte bu veri noktas\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde daha g\u00fcvercin bir Fed politikas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayacak faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131yla da uyumlu; mevcut fiyatlamalar d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na gelse bile \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Tarihsel olarak, ekonomik verilerin beklentileri d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde \u0131skalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler (2019 ortas\u0131 gibi) piyasalarda dalgalanman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu yaz olas\u0131 %5-7\u2019lik bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla, ana endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi, dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha az cazip hale getiriyor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 104 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro veya Japon Yeni\u2019nde vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz PMI: S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI may\u0131sta 51,5\u2019te kalarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131ramad\u0131. \u0130vme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; Fed indirimi ihtimali y\u00fckseliyor. DXY bask\u0131da, korunma ve EUR\/JPY uzunlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49349\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}