{"id":49348,"date":"2026-06-03T15:59:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T15:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/avustralyada-gsyh-buyumesi-siklon-kaynakli-aksamalar-ve-zayif-talebin-rba-gorunumunu-golgelemesiyle-03e-yavasladi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T15:59:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T15:59:11","slug":"avustralyada-gsyh-buyumesi-siklon-kaynakli-aksamalar-ve-zayif-talebin-rba-gorunumunu-golgelemesiyle-03e-yavasladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/avustralyada-gsyh-buyumesi-siklon-kaynakli-aksamalar-ve-zayif-talebin-rba-gorunumunu-golgelemesiyle-03e-yavasladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Avustralya\u2019da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, siklon kaynakl\u0131 aksamalar ve zay\u0131f talebin RBA g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6lgelemesiyle %0,3\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si 1\u00c726\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; bu oran, daha \u00f6nce %0,8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan ancak %0,9\u2019a revize edilen 4\u00c725\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Yava\u015flama; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hanehalk\u0131 ve kamu harcamalar\u0131 ile birlikte, madencilik \u00fcretimi ve ihracat faaliyetlerini etkileyen siklon kaynakl\u0131 aksamalarla ili\u015fkilendirildi. \u0130\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu belirtildi; ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7, zay\u0131flayan kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaretten gelen negatif katk\u0131y\u0131 ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015foku telafi etmeye yetmedi.<\/p>\n<p>Veriler, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; i\u00e7 talep daha dalgal\u0131 hale gelirken d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar daha az destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kamu harcamalar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilirken, hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faaliyet \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, emtia ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 hanehalk\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011finden, i\u00e7 talep b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici unsur (negatif) olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Para Politikas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Avustralya\u2019da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ilk \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,3\u2019e gerilemesini, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikan\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyidi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika faizi (cash rate) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %4,35 seviyesinde ve bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yeniden art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 art\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bu zay\u0131f veri, RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ziyade faiz indirimi olmas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira ABD ile faiz farklar\u0131 yeniden temel odak noktas\u0131 haline geliyor. 0,6400 seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisiyle AUD\/USD vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, destekleyici emtia fiyatlar\u0131 bulunsa dahi i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmede sert bir yava\u015flama, para birimi \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>Piyasa Etkileri: Sabit Getirili Enstr\u00fcmanlar ve Hisseler<\/h3>\n<p>Faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bu g\u00fcvercin kaymay\u0131 yans\u0131tmas\u0131 beklenir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, RBA politika beklentilerine y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren Avustralya devlet tahvili 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz. Gecelik endeks swap (OIS) piyasas\u0131, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden %40 olarak fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay fiyatlanan %15 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama.<\/p>\n<p>Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep t\u00fcketiciye d\u00f6n\u00fck sekt\u00f6rler ve finansal hisseler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla S&#038;P\/ASX 200 (XJO) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n veya SPI 200 endeks vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alman\u0131n de\u011fer sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti ve bu GSYH raporu, t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 e\u011filiminin devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avustralya\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz yava\u015flama: 1\u00c726 GSYH %0,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Siklon \u015foku ve zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep RBA\u2019y\u0131 faiz indirimi senaryosuna itiyor; AUD k\u0131r\u0131lgan, tahvil rallisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}