WTI, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri art\u0131rmas\u0131yla seans i\u00e7inde %2,52 y\u00fckselerek 94,00 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019e do\u011fru balistik f\u00fczeler f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; ancak ABD\u2019li yetkililer f\u00fczelerin hedeflerine ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemi k\u0131nad\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larda bir \u00fclkenin topraklar\u0131n\u0131n veya hava sahas\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na izin veren herhangi bir \u00fclkeye kar\u015f\u0131 yan\u0131t verme hakk\u0131n\u0131 sakl\u0131 tuttu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller \u00fcretmeye devam etti. Donald Trump g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirmemeyi kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran medyas\u0131 ileti\u015fimin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00fczerinden enerji ihracat\u0131nda kesinti riski ile k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndan olas\u0131 \u00e7ekili\u015fe odakland\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak API, 29 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftada ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 6,75 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; daha \u00f6nce revize edilen 2,8 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan gelen bu veri, 3,6 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir stok \u00e7ekili\u015fine i\u015faret etti. EIA verilerinin ise \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerdeki sert t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolara do\u011fru son hareketin son derece oynak bir d\u00f6nemin yaln\u0131zca ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa art\u0131k anlaml\u0131 bir sava\u015f-riski primi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fe konumlan\u0131yoruz. Diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7 vermemesiyle do\u011frudan askeri eylemin birle\u015fimi, \u015fimdilik fiyat i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n toplam petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin her g\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Tanker trafi\u011finde fiili bir aksama k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir olay olmayacakt\u0131r; tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, b\u00f6yle bir hadisenin fiyatlar\u0131 neredeyse bir gecede 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ratabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin art\u0131k fiyatlamas\u0131 gereken ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk budur.<\/p>\n
CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) izlenmesi gereken temel bir g\u00f6sterge olacak ve belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a sert y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Riskimizi tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon spread\u2019leri, \u00f6zellikle bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullan\u0131yoruz; b\u00f6ylece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan faydalan\u0131rken, durumun beklenmedik \u015fekilde yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Y\u00fckselen ima edilen volatilite, prim toplamak i\u00e7in put satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; ancak \u015fu a\u015famada ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski bizim i\u00e7in fazla y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
ABD stoklar\u0131nda bildirilen 6,75 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bu ralliye temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve resmi EIA verilerinin de bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini teyit edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemelen piyasan\u0131n backwardation\u2019\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirecek; yani en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131n daha ileri vadeli kontratlara g\u00f6re primli i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi. Piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi acil fiziki arz talebinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spread) kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi, enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirecek ve Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. Son T\u00dcFE verileri enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; ancak yeni bir enerji fiyat \u015foku bu ilerlemeyi kolayca tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda petrol\u00fc yaln\u0131zca bir enerji i\u015flemi olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fc ve daha geni\u015f ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir unsur haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde barut kokusu: WTI %2,52 art\u0131\u015fla 94 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. \u0130ran-ABD gerilimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kesinti riski ve 6,75 milyon varillik stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyatlara sava\u015f primi ekledi. OVX izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49346\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}