TD Securities, ABD hizmetler faaliyetinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyor; \u015firket, ISM Hizmet Endeksi\u2019nin May\u0131s\u2019ta 53,6\u2019dan 54,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu tahmin, 53,8\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde. Kurum, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni sipari\u015flere ve tedarik\u00e7i teslimatlar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flamaya ba\u011fl\u0131yor; ikincisini ise \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d (prices paid) bile\u015feni de yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n ajandas\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM hizmetler, ADP istihdam ve S&P hizmet PMI verileri yer al\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca Fed yetkilileri Barr ve Logan\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde Fed\u2019in Beige Book raporu takip edilecek. Ayr\u0131 olarak, JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilerken, \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler Nisan\u2019daki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine ve May\u0131s\u2019ta ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion) riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; Nisan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n profesyonel ve i\u015f hizmetlerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TD Securities, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 oranlar\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tabloya i\u015faret etse de genel sinyali \u201cistikrara kavu\u015fma\u201d olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor; bununla birlikte Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmelerin, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) \u00f6ncesinde piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda ABD verilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin, yakla\u015fan ABD makro verilerinden daha fazla piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. VIX endeksi son bir haftada 19,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bu gerilimi yans\u0131tt\u0131. Bu nedenle, artan fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin SPX \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131\u2014\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ISM hizmetler verisi bekliyoruz; \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d bile\u015feninin de enerji maliyetlerinden kaynaklanan kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131ya i\u015faret etmesi muhtemel. Son T\u00dcFE verileri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ge\u00e7en ay %3,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek analistleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ISM verisi, faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6teleyebilir; daha \u015fahin (hawkish) bir Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Eyl\u00fcl SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar cazip bir hedge olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 oranlar\u0131 istikrara i\u015faret etse de Nisan JOLTS raporu a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131nda 9,1 milyona s\u00fcrpriz bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6sterdi; bunu, muhtemelen tersine d\u00f6necek istatistiksel bir g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc NFP raporu \u00f6ncesindeki bu karma sinyaller, olaya dayal\u0131 (event-driven) i\u015flemler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fabilecek ilk oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY gibi d\u00f6viz paritelerinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 tedarik zinciri sorunlar\u0131, WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin son bir ayd\u0131r istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine neden oldu. Bu haftaki hizmetler ve istihdam verileri, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerine ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li bir ekonomiyi teyit ederse, ABD dolar\u0131nda g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu temay\u0131 do\u011frudan oynamak i\u00e7in UUP dolar endeksi ETF\u2019si \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: TD Securities, ISM Hizmet\u2019in May\u0131s\u2019ta 54,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Yeni sipari\u015fler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 arz aksamalar\u0131 \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d\u0131 izletebilir. Jeopolitik man\u015fetler, NFP \u00f6ncesi fiyatlamay\u0131 domine edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}