Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta gerileyerek 0,5900 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerinin gerisinde kald\u0131. Hareket, ABD ordusunun Kuveyt Uluslararas\u0131 Havaliman\u0131\u2019nda hasara yol a\u00e7an ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da ki\u015finin yaralanmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanan \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131yla ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine geldi. Al Jazeera ayr\u0131ca \u0130srail\u2019in Beyrut\u2019un d\u0131\u015f kesimlerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 bildirdi; bu da k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkese y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce \u00c7in\u2019in hizmetler PMI verisinden gelen destek, jeopolitik arka plan ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidece\u011fi beklentilerini peki\u015ftiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. NZD\/USD, 0,5910 destek b\u00f6lgesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,5896 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; grafiklerde 4 saatlik RSI 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede daha da derinle\u015fti. Kritik destek seviyeleri 0,5865 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 0,5815\u20130,5830 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Nisan 12 dip seviyesi olan 0,5700 \u00f6ncesinde. Diren\u00e7 ise 0,5800 \u00fczeri, 0,5850 civar\u0131 ve May\u0131s\u2013Haziran zirvelerine yak\u0131n 0,5990 b\u00f6lgesinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik risk ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisinin belirledi\u011fi mevcut ortam, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir NZD\/USD kurundan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim yerle\u015fik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ciddi bir tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmadan tersine d\u00f6nmesi zay\u0131f ihtimal.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131rarak Kiwi gibi risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerine zarar veriyor. Tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019de Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk evreleri gibi askeri tansiyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde NZD\/USD paritesi bir ay i\u00e7inde %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesiyle bu kal\u0131b\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son ABD makro verileriyle de destekleniyor: May\u0131s istihdam raporu 250 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon Fed hedefinin \u00fczerinde, %3,1 seviyesinde kal\u0131yor. Piyasa, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor; bu da dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturuyor. Fed\u2019in yaz boyunca \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda NZD\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. 0,5865\u2019teki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 0,5815 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,5850 civar\u0131nda ve vadesi Temmuz sonu olan put al\u0131m\u0131, beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Gelir elde etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in de, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya bear call spread kurulumu f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 0,5990 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; buras\u0131 May\u0131s ve Haziran ba\u015f\u0131 zirvelerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,6000 ve \u00fczerindeki call\u2019lar\u0131 satmak, paritenin buradan anlaml\u0131 bir ralli yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi; Cboe FX Volatilite Endeksi son iki haftada %15 artt\u0131. Bu durum opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rsa da, opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda al\u0131nan primi y\u00fckselterek kredi spreadlerini g\u00f6rece daha cazip hale getirebilir. Bu jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; olas\u0131 bir tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici olsa da sert bir ters hareket yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: NZD\/USD 0,5900 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 0,5865-0,5815 hedef. Put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49339\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}