EUR\/DKK may\u0131sta 7,4739 ile yeni bir tarihi zirveye i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve o tarihten bu yana 7,4742\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti; Danimarka Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Rapor, bankan\u0131n \u015fimdilik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya tolerans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini, ancak hareketin s\u00fcrmesi halinde pariteyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in devreye girmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda Danimarka\u2019n\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 olarak politika faizini 10 baz puan art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Mart se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan yeni bir Danimarka h\u00fck\u00fcmeti kuruldu ve g\u0131dada KDV\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine odaklanan, kayda de\u011fer vergi indirimleri i\u00e7eren bir program a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00d6nerilen KDV de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin hayata ge\u00e7ti\u011finde enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor; ancak takvim \u00f6telenmi\u015f durumda: bu y\u0131l de\u011fil ve muhtemelen 2027\u2019de de de\u011fil. Bu arada daha \u00f6nce duyurulan g\u0131da vergisi indirimleri iptal edildi ve akaryak\u0131t vergileri de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmeyecek; bu da 2026\u2019da enflasyon \u00fczerinde ilave bir rahatlama anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Plan, daha y\u00fcksek kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na i\u015faret etmeksizin, vergi indirimleri ve harcama art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda finansman taraf\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha net olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/DKK\u2019yi, 7,4742 ile yeni tarih\u00ee zirvesine ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra, merkez paritesinin (7,46038) belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Danimarka Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131sta m\u00fcdahale etmemesi, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 kayda de\u011fer bir sab\u0131r g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bununla birlikte, bu sabr\u0131n incelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve e\u011filim \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrerse kurun yukar\u0131 hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahalenin muhtemel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bir tavan\u0131n devreye sokulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, EUR\/DKK\u2019de ilave yukar\u0131 potansiyeli \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/DKK al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira m\u00fcdahale, kurun \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131 gitmesini muhtemelen engelleyecektir. Bu strateji, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden kur \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131 savunma kredibilitesine oynuyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak merkez bankas\u0131, 2015\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleleri gibi \u00f6rneklerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u00e7\u0131pay\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmad\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f performans, faiz ayarlamalar\u0131ndansa birincil ara\u00e7 olarak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesini kullanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle, Danimarka\u2019dan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde tek tarafl\u0131 10 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz trader\u2019lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, Danimarka faizlerinin Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizlerini yak\u0131ndan takip etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z Danimarka s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir risk priminin fiyatlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in az neden var. Kur \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki herhangi bir bask\u0131, neredeyse kesin olarak \u00f6nce d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali g\u00fcndemi bu y\u0131l enflasyona y\u00f6nelik hemen bir rahatlama sa\u011flamayacak. G\u0131dada b\u00fcy\u00fck KDV indirimleri 2027\u2019ye kadar planlanm\u0131yor ve daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan akaryak\u0131t vergisi indirimleri iptal edildi; bu durum may\u0131s itibar\u0131yla %2,8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyonun k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla i\u00e7 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 gidermekten ziyade kur istikrar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/DKK rekor seviyede: Danimarka Merkez Bankas\u0131 may\u0131sta m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131, ancak bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerse tavan i\u00e7in devreye girebilir. Tek tarafl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131f; KDV indirimi gecikiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49336\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}