Societe Generale, USD\/ZAR\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ocakta 15,63 civar\u0131nda olu\u015fan ara dip sonras\u0131 duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, paritenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Fiyat hareketi, 16,80\u201316,92 b\u00f6lgesindeki son pivot zirveyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu bant art\u0131k kritik bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
16,80\u201316,92\u2019nin \u00fczerinde net bir hareket, ocak ay\u0131ndaki dipten daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 teyit edecektir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, nisan dibinin bulundu\u011fu 16,12\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkma, daha geni\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin yeniden devreye girdi\u011fine i\u015faret edecektir. Analiz, bu seviyeleri y\u00f6n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli ana referans noktalar\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/ZAR\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve paritede bir karars\u0131zl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun arka plan\u0131nda, G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019da enflasyonun may\u0131sta %5,8 ile diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD istihdam raporunun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 250 binlik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc dinamiklerin olu\u015fmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Parite, kilit nisan dibi 16,12 ile 16,92 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Dolar taraf\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi bekleyenler i\u00e7in izledi\u011fimiz temel tetikleyici, 16,92 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket. \u015eahin bir Fed\u2019in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hamleyi destekleyebilece\u011fi senaryoda, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak \u00fczere USD\/ZAR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini uygun buluruz. Tarihsel olarak 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi ABD faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman dolar\u0131n geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan 16,12\u2019deki nisan dibinin alt\u0131na ini\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve rand\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret edecektir. Bu senaryoda, y\u00fcksek yurti\u00e7i faizler ve son \u00e7eyrekte %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc platin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi rand lehine pozisyonlanarak sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131r\u0131z. G\u00fcney Afrika Merkez Bankas\u0131 repo faizini bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir %8,25\u2019te tutuyor; bu da carry trader\u2019lar i\u00e7in cazip getiri sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede volatilite satman\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca USD\/ZAR\u2019\u0131n kabaca 16,00\u201317,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yatay kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201ciron condor\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini i\u00e7erebilir. B\u00f6yle bir pozisyon, belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan mevcut duraklamadan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/ZAR\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 16,80\u201316,92 kritik diren\u00e7, 16,12 ise k\u0131r\u0131lma hatt\u0131. \u00dcst\u00fc ralli teyidi, alt\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi. Enflasyon, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}