Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirerek 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselmesinin enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirmesi ve faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle haftan\u0131n yeni en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilim ortam\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n rezerv para birimi cazibesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, getirisi olmayan metali bask\u0131lad\u0131. Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, Fed\u2019in enflasyonu %2\u2019ye indirme taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc yineledi. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131 ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu tablo ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini desteklemeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik cephede ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d kapsam\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD tesislerine f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ABD ve K\u00f6rfez hava savunma sistemlerince engellendi. \u0130srail ile Hizbullah aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n da \u015fiddetlendi\u011fi bildirildi. Marco Rubio, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Washington\u2019un yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Donald Trump ise a\u00e7\u0131k u\u00e7lu bir ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonu\u00e7lanana kadar ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini duyurdu. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131 i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 46 civar\u0131nda, MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.598,83 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.634,83 dolarda; destek ise 4.322,55 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin, piyasalar\u0131n buna ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyona odaklanmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede ironik bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri peki\u015ftiriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini \u015fu a\u015famada bask\u0131layan ba\u015fl\u0131ca ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r konumunda.<\/p>\n
Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,4 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek Fed\u2019e manevra alan\u0131 b\u0131rakmad\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015fken, piyasan\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima etti\u011fi %50 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2r bir tahmin olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu dinamik, dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn devam edece\u011fi ve getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Azalan kanal i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri veya ilgili ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. 4.600 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fler, yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlara giri\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. \u0130lk hedefimiz, kanal\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n 4.322 dolar destek seviyesi.<\/p>\n
VIX endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 19\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; ancak alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, artan riskleri hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bu durum, i\u015flemin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejileriyle pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir pencere yarat\u0131yor. Bu strateji, ani bir jeopolitik yumu\u015fama riskini y\u00f6netirken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete kat\u0131lmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, 1970\u2019lerin sonundaki enerji \u015foklar\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemleri and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemlerde Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 agresif tepkisi nihayetinde dolar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde dolar\u0131n bask\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak cazibesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde benzer bir dinami\u011fin devreye girece\u011fini ve alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n daha olas\u0131 i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol rallisi enflasyon korkusunu k\u00f6r\u00fckledi, Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: Alt\u0131n 4.450$ alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131; 4.322$ destek izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49334\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}