Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 49,7 ile 48,5 olan piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bununla birlikte veri, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fik de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda kalarak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r faaliyetinde devam eden, ancak \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, genel ko\u015fullar hafif negatif kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ay boyunca ivmenin piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, bile\u015fik endeks yatay bir okumaya k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131 ekonomik aktivitesi daralma g\u00f6sterdi; ancak piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kadar sert bir daralma olmad\u0131. Bu \u201cbeklentiden iyi\u201d k\u00f6t\u00fc haberin, FTSE 250 endeksi gibi Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede bir taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenen istikrardan prim elde etmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli vadelerde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan put opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, \u00f6zellikle ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha zay\u0131f para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Sterlin\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek sa\u011flayabilir. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun ge\u00e7en ay %3,1 ile diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) \u00f6nce faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, GBP\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,28 seviyesinin yeniden a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bunun \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay ekonomik daralma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; bu durum daha b\u00fcy\u00fck resimde ekonominin zay\u0131flama e\u011filimini peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu da BoE\u2019nin bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc do\u011fruluyor; muhtemelen d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte. 2026 sonuna do\u011fru daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlerden fayda sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde SONIA vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Daralan bir ekonominin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 gibi \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, piyasada karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Yak\u0131n zamanda y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviye olan %12\u2019ye gerileyen FTSE 100 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %14\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketine oynayabilmek i\u00e7in endekste straddle stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine dair net bir sinyal veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI! Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 49,7 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; daralma s\u00fcrse de daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131. Sterlin destek bulabilir, FTSE\u2019de taban\/oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, straddle ve GBP\/USD call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49331\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}