USD\/IDR, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 talebi sayesinde y\u00fckselerek 18.037 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve yeni rekor b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n engellendi\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019e do\u011fru balistik f\u00fczeler f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019nda misilleme niteli\u011finde me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 bir aksama riskini de fiyatl\u0131yor; bu kanal, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve yeniden enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerinden etki yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileriyle de destekleniyor. May\u0131s 2026 ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI endeksi, \u00f6nceki iki ay\u0131n 52,7 seviyesinden 54,0\u2019a y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti. Dikkatler, ek politika sinyalleri i\u00e7in Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi. Yurti\u00e7inde ise rupiah, Nisan ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n 2020\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerilemesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu durum ihracat kaynakl\u0131 dolar giri\u015flerini azaltarak, likiditeyi desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik son ad\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen para birimini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortamda, Endonezya Rupiah\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131 oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. \u015eahin bir Fed ile t\u0131rmanan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinin birle\u015fimi, ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem stratejilerimizin daha y\u00fcksek bir USD\/IDR senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenen yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, rupiah\u2019taki de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan kaynaklanabilecek potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken, azami riskimizi \u00f6denen prim ile net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6rerek pariteyi 18.037 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehdit, enerji piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fimdiden fiyatlan\u0131yor. Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak, Fed\u2019i bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda tutan enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de jeopolitik \u015foklar e\u015fli\u011finde agresif Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa dinamiklerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia) bu denli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rupiah\u2019\u0131 savunma kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Endonezya tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla May\u0131s 2026\u2019da toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n 1,2 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu desen, 2013 \u201cTaper Tantrum\u201d gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerle uyumlu; yerel politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131n etkisini telafi etmekte zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekor alarm\u0131: USD\/IDR 18.037\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz risk primi ve 115$ Brent dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor; zay\u0131f ticaret fazlas\u0131 rupiah\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor, al\u0131m opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}