Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131 may\u0131sta 48,5 ile 47,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Endeks, geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50,0 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etse de, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ay boyunca faaliyetin beklenenden daha az zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, bile\u015fik g\u00f6stergenin yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, s\u00fcrprizin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talepten mi yoksa hizmetler ve imalatta ge\u00e7ici bir diren\u00e7ten mi kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tartacak. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n endeks h\u00e2l\u00e2 daralma b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fundan, veri beklentilere k\u0131yasla iyile\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen blok genelinde zay\u0131f momentum tablosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s PMI verisi 48,5 ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 daralma i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu, ancak piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha diren\u00e7li seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bize g\u00f6re bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma sinyali de\u011fil; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131z kesti\u011fine dair net bir i\u015faret. Bunun, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00fcndemde olan derin resesyon kuyruk riskini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Beklentileri a\u015fan bu aktivite g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz indirimlerinde aceleci olmamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Son Eurostat verilerinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,7\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle, daha az sert bir yava\u015flama ECB\u2019ye politikay\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bunu, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha az faiz indirimi beklentisine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin Aral\u0131k vadeli Euribor kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonla.<\/p>\n
Euro Stoxx 50 gibi hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu haber destekleyici; zira \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cu\u00e7urumdan d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi\u201d endi\u015felerini hafifletiyor. Euro Stoxx 50 Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VSTOXX) son d\u00f6nemde 14,5\u2019e gerilemesi rehavete i\u015faret edebilir; ancak biz bunu k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sermaye kullan\u0131m\u0131yla iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan do\u011fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ise daha temkinli bir ECB Euro i\u00e7in pozitif. Bu veri, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, ekonomide so\u011fuma sinyalleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan Fed\u2019in bulundu\u011fu ortamda, Euro\u2019nun konumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Olas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturman\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI: Euro B\u00f6lgesi HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI may\u0131sta 48,5 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; daralma s\u00fcrse de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z kesti. ECB indirimleri gecikebilir, Euribor sat\u0131\u015f, Euro ve hisse\/opsiyonlar destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49327\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}