Rupi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sert de\u011fer kaybetti; ham petrol\u00fcn toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve yabanc\u0131 fonlar\u0131n Hindistan hisselerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesiyle USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,77\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. WTI, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nerilen bir \u0130ran ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin duyurdu\u011fu revizyonlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 29 May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla, %1,4 art\u0131\u015fla 93,00 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Reuters, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) INR\u2019deki kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131 sat\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini aktar\u0131rken, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n rupi gibi ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim de enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n engellendi\u011fini ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran\u2019a ait Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa kapsam\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fini bildirdi. Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 3.911,68 crore rupi net sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 8.362,92 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda hisse satt\u0131. RBI\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar \u00f6ncesinde s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; PTI anketine g\u00f6re 11 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 politika faizinin (repo) sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, d\u00f6rt kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019sinin %7,8\u2019den %7,2\u2019ye gerilemesi beklenirken, teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 95,43, RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 54,9; destekler 94,46 ve 94,03; diren\u00e7ler 96,19 ve 97,09 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan rupisinin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 95,77 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici g\u00fc\u00e7ler, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n aral\u0131ks\u0131z sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Bu kombinasyon, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda para birimi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019de g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz duruma olduk\u00e7a benziyor. O y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Hindistan hisselerinden rekor d\u00fczeyde 28,8 milyar dolar \u00e7ekmi\u015f, bu da USD\/INR paritesinin ilk kez 80 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde benzer \u015fekilde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bask\u0131 paterni bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
95,43 gibi kritik teknik seviyenin \u00fczerinde olu\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/INR paritesinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bir sonraki diren\u00e7 olan 96,19\u2019u hedefleyerek al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 97,09 civar\u0131ndaki tarihi zirvenin test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma RBI\u2019nin politika karar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. RBI\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in dolar sat\u0131yor olmas\u0131 muhtemel; nitekim 2022\u2019de volatiliteyi y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla d\u00f6viz rezervleri 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahale, trendi tersine \u00e7evirmekten ziyade \u00e7o\u011funlukla yaln\u0131zca yava\u015flatabilir. S\u00fcrpriz bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rupiye ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sa\u011flayabilir; fakat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel fakt\u00f6rleri dengelemeye yetmeyebilir.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc RBI karar\u0131 ve GSYH verisi piyasaya belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k enjekte edebilir. Her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, merkez bankas\u0131 duyurusunun sonucuna dair net bir y\u00f6n bahsi almadan belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Temel sorun ham petrol fiyat\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; zira Hindistan ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle WTI\u2019nin 93 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131 halinde rupi k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 para biriminin y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birincil g\u00f6sterge olarak izlemek gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131: Petrol 93 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131p FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131nca USD\/INR 95,77\u2019ye dayand\u0131. RBI m\u00fcdahalesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir; Cuma faiz karar\u0131 ve GSYH verisi sert oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49322"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49322\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}