Euro \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; ge\u00e7en Cuma g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,8681 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra 0,8630\u2019un birka\u00e7 pip \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f tonu bu hafta EUR\/GBP \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkiyle kald\u0131. \u0130ran ile ABD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan ate\u015fkesi test eden bu geli\u015fme ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, eurodaki olas\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler May\u0131s ay\u0131 aktivite verilerine de \u00e7evrildi: Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u00fcyeleri i\u00e7in nihai HCOB Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n durgun ko\u015fullar\u0131 teyit etmesi bekleniyor; ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k S&P Global PMI\u2019\u0131n da benzer bir tabloya i\u015faret edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/GBP 0,8630\u2019un hemen \u00fczerinde deste\u011fini korudu; d\u00f6rt saatlik RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 39 seviyesinde ve MACD hafif negatif. 0,8630 civar\u0131ndaki seans b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131na bir ini\u015f, 0,8610\u20130,8615 band\u0131ndaki 2026 diplerini g\u00fcndeme getirirken; yukar\u0131da diren\u00e7 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc 0,8641 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,8681 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut jeopolitik gerilimleri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda anlaml\u0131 bir EUR\/GBP rallisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son sald\u0131r\u0131lar WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019a k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan bu durum euronun \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler de euronun g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Hizmet PMI k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 49,8 ile hafif bir daralmay\u0131 teyit ederken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verisi 50,5 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde kalmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek sterline temel bir avantaj sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (ECB) k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fu korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasalar, yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun BoE\u2019yi faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlayabilece\u011fini fiyatlarken; ECB\u2019nin zay\u0131flayan ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in politika gev\u015femesini g\u00fcndemine alabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, EUR\/GBP kuru a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022 gibi d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve Avrupa b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler euronun \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarihsel olarak bu kombinasyon, EUR\/GBP paritesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri engelliyor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay da korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,8681 seviyesini sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla vadesiz (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 veya yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bear call spread pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, riski tan\u0131mlarken prim geliri elde etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in kilit destek 0,8610\u20130,8615 b\u00f6lgesi. Y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyesinin alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8600 olan put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, \u00f6zellikle ima edilen volatilitenin son d\u00f6nemde yukar\u0131 hareket etti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu senaryoya temkinli bir \u015fekilde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uygun bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP 0,8630 \u00fczerinde tutunurken Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen petrol euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor. PMI\u2019lar zay\u0131f, BoE-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sterlini destekliyor. 0,8610 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f artabilir; 0,8681 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49320\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}