GBP\/USD, d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisinin ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3470 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131na ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. \u0130ran, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019e do\u011fru balistik f\u00fczeler f\u0131rlat\u0131rken, ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn dahil b\u00f6lgesel kom\u015fular\u0131 hedef alan bir dizi \u0130ran f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fini ve etkisiz h\u00e2le getirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABC News\u2019e g\u00f6re komutanl\u0131k ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019nda me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa kapsam\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Sterlin, Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,19 de\u011fer kazand\u0131; GBP\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3446 dip seviyesinden toparlanarak 1,3470 civar\u0131na geldi. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler piyasalar\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ederken, ABD hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini yeniden test etti. Emtia taraf\u0131nda ise petrol geriledi; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) %0,40 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 92,07 dolara indi.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019de klasik bir \u201ca\u00e7maz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Jeopolitik endi\u015feler g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 desteklerken, \u015fahin tondaki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Sterlin\u2019i destekliyor. Parite 1,3450 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor, ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler t\u0131rmand\u0131k\u00e7a bu sakinli\u011fin uzun s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu istikrar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmada kritik bir karar noktas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ma edilen volatilite, f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD m\u00fcdahalesine net bi\u00e7imde tepki verdi. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi olan VIX endeksi, son bir haftada 14\u2019l\u00fck dip seviyeden 19\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu durum GBP\/USD\u2019de straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor; ancak bekledi\u011fimiz b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 i\u015flemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bu maliyet katlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken bir bedel olabilir.<\/p>\n
Temel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile ABD aras\u0131nda artan bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu ge\u00e7en ay %2,8 ile hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederken, BoE\u2019nin faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, son ABD istihdam raporu i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederek, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, Sterlin i\u00e7in g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r. Son geli\u015fmeler WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu seviye bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Tarihsel olarak, enerji maliyetlerindeki bu t\u00fcr sert art\u0131\u015flar, net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisini zorlam\u0131\u015f ve Sterlin\u2019in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda opsiyon piyasas\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz: Bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal g\u00f6stergeleri, GBP put\u2019lar\u0131na call\u2019lara k\u0131yasla artan bir prim olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00f6deme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, ani bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) hamlesine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in put spread gibi stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD 1,3470\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, \u015fahin BoE Sterlin\u2019i destekliyor. VIX s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, opsiyon maliyetleri artt\u0131; risk reversal a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}