EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareketin ard\u0131ndan 1,1630 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin \u00e7\u0131kmaza girmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden alevlenen gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019i hedef alan \u0130ran f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n p\u00fcsk\u00fcrt\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; ABC News ise ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm (Qeshm) Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki askeri hedeflere y\u00f6nelik me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fini bildirdi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanma riskinin g\u00fcndeme gelmesi, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri de dolar\u0131 destekler nitelikteydi. ISM \u0130malat PMI, May\u0131s 2026\u2019da \u00f6nceki iki aydaki 52,7 seviyesinden 54\u2019e y\u00fckselerek May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti. Nisan ay\u0131 JOLTS verileri ise i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n geriledi\u011fi bir ortamda a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 7,6118 milyona y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde HICP enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131 ve beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politikas\u0131na oda\u011f\u0131 canl\u0131 tutarken, yetkililer uzun vadeli beklentilerin \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa at\u0131f yapt\u0131, Haziran hamlesini \u201csigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201d olarak niteledi ve beklentilerin d\u00f6rt y\u0131l \u00f6nceki seviyelere benzedi\u011fini belirtirken, ek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in zaman\u0131nda ad\u0131m \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ciddi gerilimlerin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e dolara y\u00f6nelik bu g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin devam etmesi muhtemel. Bu hafta d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda birincil belirleyici, k\u0131sa vadeli jeopolitik riskler.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanma ihtimali enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131; zira k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2htan ge\u00e7iyor. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr kesintiler petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7abiliyor; Brent petrol 2019\u2019daki benzer gerilimlerde tek g\u00fcnde %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyoruz; bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma tezini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de imalat PMI\u2019da d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi ve a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler, \u015fahin Fed beklentimizi daha da peki\u015ftiriyor. \u015eimdi t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinde. Verinin 190 binlik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi ihtimaline dair kalan son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kald\u0131rabilir. Bu temel arka plan, euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmaya devam etmesine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, kendi enflasyon sorunlar\u0131na yan\u0131t olarak giderek daha \u015fahin bir tona y\u00f6nelen Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da izliyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar bu ay \u201csigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d ihtiyati bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fikrini daha a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde dillendiriyor. Bu durum euronun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor ve dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha gergin bir \u00e7eki\u015fme yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam verisi \u00f6ncesindeki belirsizlik dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD\u2019de ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Her iki y\u00f6nde de belirgin bir harekete oynayarak, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sonuca y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahis yapmadan yakla\u015fan etkinlik riskini i\u015flemeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yan temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir strateji i\u00e7in ise, vadesi bir-iki hafta olan EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam verisinin pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesi halinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. \u0130zledi\u011fimiz kritik destek seviyesi 1,1500; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ilave sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,1630\u2019a geriledi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI-JOLTS \u015fahin Fed\u2019i besliyor; ECB\u2019nin \u201csigorta\u201d faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}