USD\/CAD, \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde yeniden y\u00fckselerek 1,3850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kanada Dolar\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyan ham petrole ra\u011fmen, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerindeki hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 nedeniyle zay\u0131f kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeni bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 92,60 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt ve Bahreyn y\u00f6n\u00fcne balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. ABC News\u2019e g\u00f6re ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 engelledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 bir kesinti riskini de fiyatlad\u0131. Bu senaryo enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi. ABD verileri de bu tabloyu peki\u015ftirdi: May\u0131s 2026 ISM \u0130malat PMI 52,7\u2019den 54,0\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, Nisan JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 7,61 milyona \u00e7\u0131karak yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa dinamikleri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trend olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile CAD aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f pozitif korelasyon, bask\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f nedeniyle bozulmu\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin emtia kaynakl\u0131 ak\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla USD\/CAD\u2019de ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin etkisiyle WTI\u2019nin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, belirgin bir enflasyon tehdidi olu\u015fturuyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyelerde uzun s\u00fcre kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 son d\u00f6nem, 2022\u2019deki arz \u015fokuydu ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere ula\u015fan enflasyon oranlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihsel paralellik, artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma tezini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen makro verilerle teyit ediliyor ve \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendiriyor. Nitekim faiz vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden \u00f6nce Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019un alt\u0131nda fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ile artan bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, potansiyel kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi var; bu veri dolar i\u00e7in bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r olabilir. Olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc JOLTS verisinin ard\u0131ndan, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n piyasa beklentisi olan 210 binin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, USD\/CAD\u2019in yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem diren\u00e7lerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca paritede bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla birlikte belirgin bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 92,6 dolar\u0131 a\u015fsa da riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f CAD\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor: USD\/CAD 1,3850\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi enflasyonu beslerken \u015fahin Fed-BoC ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Cuma NFP yeni kataliz\u00f6r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}