AUD\/JPY, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH verisinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131; ancak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 114,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131 ve Eyl\u00fcl 1990\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerine yak\u0131n olan 115,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n seyretti. Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (ABS), ekonominin 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %0,8\u2019den geriledi\u011fini ve %0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Daha zay\u0131f Nisan t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ve \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte bu veriler, RBA\u2019n\u0131n Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini azaltt\u0131; s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik belirsizlik de AUD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
JPY, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden tedarik aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle Japonya ekonomisinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00d6zel bir anket, Japonya hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 13 ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s\u2019ta duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; yeni i\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayda da yava\u015flad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak uyar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir piyasa tepkisiyle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya ekonomisindeki yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/JPY\u2019de en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7, Avustralya\u2019da politika faizinin %4,35 seviyesinde olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizinin s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle olu\u015fan \u00e7ok geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131. Bu fark, yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen carry trade i\u015flemlerini beslemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Aussie dolar\u0131na yeni bir destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f GSYH raporu ve yumu\u015fak enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan t\u00fcrev piyasalar art\u0131k Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Ne var ki bu i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Japonya ekonomisinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu daha b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u015flemde daha ikna edici unsur yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Japonya ekonomisi yak\u0131n zamanda ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %2,0 darald\u0131; May\u0131s hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc verileri de bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n geni\u015flemenin ard\u0131ndan endi\u015fe verici bir duraksamaya i\u015faret etti. Bu temel bask\u0131lar, yenin benzer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 115,00 psikolojik seviyesinin olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in AUD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, bize g\u00f6re do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem. Bu strateji, yerle\u015fik y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutar. M\u00fcdahale uyar\u0131lar\u0131na piyasan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki vermesi, piyasan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin test edilmesine daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, 114,50 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak gelir yaratabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m; paritenin y\u00fckselmesi, yatay kalmas\u0131 veya yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015famas\u0131 durumunda avantaj sa\u011flar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Japon yetkililerin s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmelerinin etkisiz kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, 2022\u2019deki \u00f6rneklerin yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalenin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini not etmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY, zay\u0131f Avustralya GSYH\u2019sine ra\u011fmen 114,50 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunup 115,00 e\u015fi\u011fine dayand\u0131. RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rafa kalkarken, BoJ\u2019un d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizi carry trade\u2019i destekliyor; yen zay\u0131f. Opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49312\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}