Avustralya ekonomisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek %0,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Daha zay\u0131f gelen veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik faaliyetin daha yava\u015f bir tempoya i\u015faret ederken, yak\u0131n vadeli makro politika beklentilerini de \u015fekillendirebilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tahminlerin alt\u0131nda seyretmesiyle birlikte, oda\u011f\u0131n i\u00e7 talebin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek yeni k\u0131s\u0131tlara kaymas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00c7eyreklik %0,3\u2019l\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, beklentinin 0,2 puan alt\u0131nda kalarak, bir sonraki veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na girerken ivmenin daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
%0,5 beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rarak %0,3\u2019te kalan ve Avustralya ekonomisinde belirgin bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin zay\u0131f veriyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu veri, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesini zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Piyasa, art\u0131k ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geri \u00e7ekerken, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilk faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131na kayd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, AUD\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanacak pozisyonlar\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlarda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den gelen ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin ge\u00e7en ay yaln\u0131zca %5,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son veriler de, Avustralya emtialar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n faiz piyasas\u0131nda olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli taraf\u0131nda rallinin s\u00fcrmesini; yani tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselip getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmak veya 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k Avustralya devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m yapmak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in cazip bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 cephesinde ise ASX 200 i\u00e7in belirsizlik art\u0131yor; zay\u0131f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri ihtimali kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geliyor. ASX 200 VIX\u2019in 12 civar\u0131nda seyrederek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, bu ortam\u0131 volatilite i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Endeks \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilerle volatilite sat\u0131n alman\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu; piyasan\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir hareket riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131fl\u0131k: Avustralya GSYH ilk \u00e7eyrekte %0,3\u2019te kalarak %0,5 beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. RBA\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rafa kalk\u0131yor, indirim beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; AUD bask\u0131da, tahvil rallisi ve volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}