Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde geriledi. XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.465 dolara d\u00fc\u015ferken, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcphelerin artmas\u0131yla 4.450 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden \u00e7ekilmekle tehdit etti\u011fi bildirildi. Buna paralel olarak Donald Trump, \u0130srail ile Hizbullah aras\u0131nda yeniden ate\u015fkesin sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylerken, Marco Rubio Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; olas\u0131 bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015femesinin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumdan vazge\u00e7mesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem politika duru\u015funu etkileyebilecek Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD istihdam verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Beklentiler 85 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fmemesine i\u015faret ediyor; daha zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri ABD dolar\u0131nda bask\u0131 yarat\u0131p dolar bazl\u0131 emtialara destek verebilir. \u00d6te yandan D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nden aktar\u0131lan resmi veriler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi\u011fini ve bunun kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.450 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n gerilemesi, bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo ortaya koyuyor. \u0130ran\u2019la jeopolitik gerilim normalde g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklerdi; ancak piyasa \u015fu anda enflasyon riskine daha fazla odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki risk enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, bu Cuma 5 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD istihdam verisi olmal\u0131. May\u0131s i\u00e7in beklenti yaln\u0131zca 85 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f; bu, Nisan\u2019da eklenen 175 bin istihdama k\u0131yasla belirgin bir yava\u015flama. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenti, veride gelecek herhangi bir s\u00fcrprizde piyasada sert bir hareket i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam verisi beklentiden de zay\u0131f gelirse, \u015fahin Fed anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo muhtemelen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011finin fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131r. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda belirgin \u00e7atlaklar g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde sert bir ralli olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Tersine, beklentiyi a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele rotas\u0131n\u0131 teyit eder. Bu durum dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilir; kritik destek seviyelerinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimali artar. Piyasa, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam\u0131 Fed\u2019in agresif kalabilmesi i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d olarak yorumlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, beklenen volatiliteyi opsiyonlarla i\u015flemeye de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131narak kurulan uzun straddle stratejisi, veri sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ziyade iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 elde etmeye imkan sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil, hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hedefler.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yap\u0131sal deste\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de unutmamak gerekir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 tarihi al\u0131m trendini devam ettirdi; bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 290 ton ek al\u0131mla, kay\u0131tlardaki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u0131l ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar\u0131n bu istikrarl\u0131 talebi, sert sat\u0131\u015flarda fiyatlar i\u00e7in potansiyel bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon tehdidi ger\u00e7ek ve piyasa hassasiyetinin temelini olu\u015fturuyor. Son y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 bir \u015fokun yaratabilece\u011fi ek fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birincil endi\u015fe olacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle piyasa \u015fu a\u015famada jeopolitik risk priminden ziyade Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha a\u011f\u0131r basacak \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler Cuma ABD istihdam\u0131nda: XAU\/USD 4.450$ civar\u0131na \u00e7ekilirken \u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f veri dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lay\u0131p alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc derinle\u015ftirir. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 taban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49307\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}