Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu, nisan ay\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa soluklu molan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan may\u0131sta net sat\u0131\u015f kaydetti; b\u00f6lgesel sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymetler ise zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi ve ABD faiz beklentilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesiyle gelen bu de\u011fi\u015fim, s\u0131n\u0131r (frontier) piyasa d\u00f6vizleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. May\u0131s\u0131 net al\u0131mla kapatan tek para birimi, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa \u00dcrd\u00fcn Dinar\u0131 (JOD) oldu.<\/p>\n
Raporda, kal\u0131c\u0131 carry \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin b\u00f6lge para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirtilirken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenilir bir tampon i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi savunuldu. Ayr\u0131ca, dolar nakit getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi halinde K\u00f6rfez ekonomileri ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sermaye giri\u015flerinin daha da yava\u015flayabilece\u011fi eklendi. Ayr\u0131 bir ba\u015fl\u0131kta, Umman Riyali (OMR) i\u00e7in \u201cb\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, jeopoliti\u011fin co\u011frafi unsurlarla birlikte ak\u0131mlar \u00fczerinde giderek daha fazla etkili olmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131sta Orta Do\u011fu para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011funda g\u00f6r\u00fclen net sat\u0131\u015f, m\u00fcdahale etmemiz gereken daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir e\u011filimin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %4,0 seviyesinde tutmas\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en haftaki toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131, bu para birimleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Nisan ay\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa rallinin, daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6ncesinde \u201cyan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131\u201d bir sinyal oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Klasik bir carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini izliyoruz: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 satarak ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden daha y\u00fcksek ve daha g\u00fcvenli getirilere y\u00f6neliyor. Institute of International Finance (IIF) verilerine g\u00f6re, May\u0131s 2026\u2019da MENA tahvil ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131ndan net 4,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. B\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131kan bu para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n haziranda h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 92 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korusa da, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu para birimlerini koruyabilece\u011fi tezi destek bulmuyor. Bir d\u00f6nem b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Umman Riyali, y\u00fcksek ABD nakit getirilerinin \u00e7ekim g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rleri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla belirgin sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde geli\u015fen piyasalar\u0131 domine etti\u011fi 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00f6z konusu para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. M\u0131s\u0131r Poundu ve bir K\u00f6rfez para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmekte. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen harekete i\u015ftirak ederken riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamaya imk\u00e2n veriyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00dcrd\u00fcn Dinar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterse de, al\u0131mlar anlaml\u0131 say\u0131lacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fildi. Genel tema net: y\u00fckselen ABD faizleri dolar\u0131 tercih edilen varl\u0131k haline getiriyor. Bunu, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na en duyarl\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel para birimlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u0131cak para tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: MENA para birimleri may\u0131sta net sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc, sabit getirili zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Y\u00fckselen ABD faiz beklentileri dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; 4,5 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tek net al\u0131m JOD.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}