{"id":49299,"date":"2026-06-03T02:59:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T02:59:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-petrol-sokunun-aciklari-buyutmesi-ve-enflasyonun-bsp-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-2026-usd-php-tahminini-yukari-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T02:59:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T02:59:41","slug":"dbs-petrol-sokunun-aciklari-buyutmesi-ve-enflasyonun-bsp-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-2026-usd-php-tahminini-yukari-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-petrol-sokunun-aciklari-buyutmesi-ve-enflasyonun-bsp-uzerindeki-baskiyi-artirmasiyla-2026-usd-php-tahminini-yukari-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS, petrol \u015fokunun a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi ve enflasyonun BSP \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla 2026 USD\/PHP tahminini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"

DBS Group Research, USD\/PHP paritesine ili\u015fkin 2026 y\u0131l sonu tahminini 57,8\u2019den 62,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Revizyon, USD\/PHP\u2019nin Operation Epic Fury\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmesinden bir ay sonra ilk kez 60 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve tedarik zinciri kesintileri Filipinler\u2019in d\u0131\u015f dengelerine yans\u0131rken, ekonominin ithal K\u00f6rfez petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekor ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon keskin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zland\u0131. T\u00dcFE enflasyonu nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %7,2, ayl\u0131k bazda %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; marttaki %4,1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve %1,4 ayl\u0131k seviyelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019in (BSP) 19 \u015eubat\u2019ta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimi 23 Nisan\u2019da politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla fiilen geri almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. BSP\u2019nin may\u0131s enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc %7,1-%7,9 band\u0131nda bulunuyor ve bu seviye %2-%4 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 Peso Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Politika Riskleri<\/h3>\n

Pesonun 62,7\u2019ye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki revize tahmin dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en olas\u0131 patikan\u0131n ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/PHP\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve geni\u015fleyen ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan temel bask\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede hafiflemesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

May\u0131s enflasyonu %7,8 ile merkez bankas\u0131 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131na gelerek endi\u015felerimizi teyit ediyor. Resm\u00ee %2-%4 hedefinin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla seyreden bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, fiilen BSP\u2019nin manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. \u0130lave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak bir teredd\u00fct, politika ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak alg\u0131lanabilir ve pesodaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Volatilite, B\u00fcy\u00fcme K\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve Azalan Carry Cazibesi<\/h3>\n

\u0130ma edilen volatilitenin sert y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle pesoya dair bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc opsiyonlarla ifade etmeyi tercih ediyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir ayl\u0131k USD\/PHP ima edilen volatilitesi k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %10\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu seviye en son 2022\u2019deki k\u00fcresel \u015foklar s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. USD\/PHP\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, bu belirsiz ortamda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalarken azami riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019in, yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle e\u011frinin gerisinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019deki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine benzer bir h\u0131zda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma yapabilme kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomiyi destekleme aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan bu politika ikilemi, pesonun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ra\u011fmen, carry trade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan peso cazibesi h\u0131zla azal\u0131yor. Kur de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riski \u2014ki tek bir haftada aylarca birikmi\u015f faiz getirilerini silebildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck\u2014 art\u0131k bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in fazla y\u00fcksek. Bu pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini izliyoruz; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 spot piyasada PHP \u00fczerinde ilave sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok tahmin revizyonu: DBS, 2026 sonu USD\/PHP hedefini 57,8\u2019den 62,7\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku enflasyonu s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, BSP s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; volatilite ve carry \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi pesoyu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49299"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49299\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}