ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), nisan ay\u0131 JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Pozisyonlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n marttaki 6,887 milyondan 7,618 milyona y\u00fckselerek 6,88 milyonluk beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,20\u2019ye do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, yapay zek\u00e2 inovasyonu ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fini te\u015fvik etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k kararnamesi imzaland\u0131; buna ABD kamu kurumlar\u0131 genelinde siber g\u00fcvenlik standartlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar da dahil. FX taraf\u0131nda, EUR\/USD geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 USD g\u00fcc\u00fc alt\u0131nda 1,1630 civar\u0131nda tutunurken, GBP\/USD 1,3470\u2019e do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve USD\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kademeli politika normalle\u015fmesi beklentilerine ra\u011fmen getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle 159,90\u2019a do\u011fru hareket etti.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH ve S&P Global PMI verileri \u00f6ncesinde 0,7180\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Alt\u0131n, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar ve y\u00fckselen Hazine tahvil getirilerinin getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla 4.490 dolar civar\u0131nda yataya yak\u0131n seyretti; WTI ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin k\u00fcresel talep endi\u015feleriyle yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda 93,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Veri takvimi 3 Haziran\u2019da \u0130spanya Hizmet PMI, Almanya PMI, Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI ve \u00dcFE, ABD ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi (4 haftal\u0131k ortalama), ABD PMI ve fabrika sipari\u015fleri ile Avustralya d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini i\u00e7eriyor; 4 Haziran\u2019da \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE, Euro B\u00f6lgesi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, ABD i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131, ABD verimlilik ve birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri ve Japonya nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 izlenecek; 5 Haziran\u2019da ise Euro B\u00f6lgesi GSYH ve istihdam ile Kanada ve ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 105,20 seviyesi civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; diren\u00e7li i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri \u00f6telemeye devam ederek endeksi destekliyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 215 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu rakam 180 binlik piyasa beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar \u00fczerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri uygulanabilir k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesi, Fed ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n daha belirgin hale gelmesiyle 1,0750 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi may\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi %2,2\u2019ye gerileyerek, ECB\u2019nin daha erken bir faiz indirimi de\u011ferlendirmek zorunda kalabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. EUR\/USD\u2019de put al\u0131m\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi senaryosuna s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (defined-risk) pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir yol sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun son veride inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,1 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) \u015fahin duru\u015fta tutuyor. Bu durum GBP\/USD i\u00e7in gergin bir denge yarat\u0131yor: BoE\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, bir sonraki BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde parite \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle gibi volatilite odakl\u0131 stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi USD\/JPY paritesini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya devam ediyor ve parite \u015fu anda 157,50 seviyesini test ediyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,45 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi %1,10 ile belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu carry trade dinami\u011finin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; bu da maliyeti y\u00f6netirken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak ad\u0131na USD\/JPY\u2019de bull call spread stratejisini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretmekte zorlan\u0131yor; ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.350 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ile reel Hazine tahvil getirilerinin belirgin \u015fekilde pozitif kalmas\u0131, getirisi olmayan metal i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Menzil i\u00e7inde (range-bound) ile hafif negatif e\u011filimli g\u00f6r\u00fcnen piyasada, mevcut pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda call opsiyonu satman\u0131n gelir yaratman\u0131n bir yolu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) petrol, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomik g\u00f6stergeleri ile zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel talep i\u015faretleri aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son imalat verileri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek anlaml\u0131 fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, iron condor gibi stratejiler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla opsiyon primi satmay\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz JOLTS verisiyle DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenip risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor! EUR\/USD bask\u0131da, USD\/JPY carry ile yukar\u0131; alt\u0131n yatay, WTI bantta. Takvim yo\u011fun: ADP, PMI\u2019lar, \u00dcFE, istihdam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}