Sterlin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,19 y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3446 dip seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3470 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2013Hizbullah \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 iyile\u015firken, piyasalar ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri de izledi. ABD hisseleri yeniden rekor b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, daha yumu\u015fak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131; WTI %0,40 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 92,07 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
OCBC, mali endi\u015felerin hafiflemesi ve ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) getirisinin destekleyici olmas\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle GBP duru\u015funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish)ten n\u00f6tre \u00e7evirdi; \u0130ngiltere verileri zay\u0131f seyrini korurken siyasi risklerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne de dikkat \u00e7ekti. Banka, 2026 sonu EUR\/GBP tahminini 0,89\u2019dan 0,87\u2019ye revize ederken, k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlanman\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gerileme alan\u0131n\u0131 sterlindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsurlar olarak vurgulad\u0131. K\u0131smi ate\u015fkes sonras\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nman\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131: Trump, \u0130srail\u2019in Beyrut\u2019a ve Hizbullah kontrol\u00fcndeki banliy\u00f6lere sald\u0131r\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki birliklerini geri \u00e7ekmeyi kabul etti\u011fini, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n da arabulucular \u00fczerinden \u0130srail\u2019e sald\u0131rmama taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131yla piyasa korkusunda bir gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum d\u00f6viz volatilitesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeli. Korkunun \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi olan VIX Endeksi, son bir haftada %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerileyerek 13,5\u2019e indi ve daha sakin bir ortama i\u015faret etti. \u0130\u015flemi bulunan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, opsiyon satmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki belirsizlik kaynakl\u0131 primler h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesi, sterlin i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsuru. Net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini iyile\u015ftirir. Bu temel destek, \u00f6zellikle 2022 enerji krizinde petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131rken paritenin 1,10\u2019un alt\u0131na indi\u011fi d\u00f6nemle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden n\u00f6tre ge\u00e7i\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin gerilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,2\u2019ye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak bunun %6,5\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamaya do\u011fru daha da d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, 1,3350-1,3550 band\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. En son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, May\u0131s 2026\u2019da beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 225 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed \u00fczerindeki faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Bu temel dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc, sterlindeki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin 1,3550 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 bir ralliye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son CFTC raporlar\u0131nda da belirtildi\u011fi \u00fczere, sterline kar\u015f\u0131 spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, paray\u0131 bir \u201cshort squeeze\u201de (k\u0131sa pozisyon s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu teknik unsur, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor ve yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Bunun yerine, spot piyasada geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m yaparken pozisyonu finanse etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmaya bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda stratejimiz, GBP\/USD\u2019yi bant i\u00e7inde hareket eden bir varl\u0131k olarak ele almak. 1,3400 seviyesi civar\u0131na do\u011fru zay\u0131fl\u0131kta toparlanma beklentisiyle al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri almay\u0131 hedefleyece\u011fiz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiyat 1,3550 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru itilirse, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 engelleyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) spread\u2019leri almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol\u00fcn deste\u011fiyle GBP\/USD 1,3470\u2019e toparland\u0131. OCBC d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften n\u00f6tre d\u00f6nd\u00fc; volatilite geriliyor, strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD verileri y\u00fckseli\u015fi 1,3550\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}