BNY, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyon h\u0131zlansa bile Kore wonunun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; bu tablonun da politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile fiyat istikrar\u0131 aras\u0131nda denge kurmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Enflasyon may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 26 ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Y\u00fckseli\u015fte enerji (petrol) maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ile wonun de\u011fer kayb\u0131 nedeniyle benzin ve motorin gibi petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi etkili oldu. Bu arka plan, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoK) \u015fahin bir duru\u015fta tutarken faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini de g\u00fcndemde b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Endonezya\u2019da ise aktivite sinyalleri karma\u015f\u0131k seyretti: PMI verileri k\u0131r\u0131lgan imalat ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, enflasyon yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,08 artarak nisan ay\u0131ndaki %2,42 seviyesinden y\u00fckseldi; bu art\u0131\u015f, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia) may\u0131sta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. D\u0131\u015f fiyatlama bask\u0131lar\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 ihracat ve ithalat fiyat endeksleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fler kaydederken, sa\u011flam d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 rupiaya ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Kore wonunda s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; y\u00fcksek enflasyonun \u015fahin bir Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesi beklenebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bu durum s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131. May\u0131s d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verileri, y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetleri nedeniyle beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve USD\/KRW paritesinin 1380 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi. D\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131n yerel para politikas\u0131ndan daha a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in, wonun daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak ad\u0131na USD\/KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 makul bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Endonezya taraf\u0131nda ise Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, imalatta k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret eden g\u00f6stergelerle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin S&P Global \u0130malat PMI endeksi 51,9\u2019a gerilerken, d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n rupiay\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde savundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili veri seti, basit bir y\u00f6n bahisinden ziyade USD\/IDR \u00fczerinde opsiyon straddle gibi uzun volatilite i\u015flemlerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lge para birimlerindeki bu bask\u0131, tek ba\u015f\u0131na geli\u015fen bir olgu de\u011fil; daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme temas\u0131n\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin %4,5 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, sermayeyi geli\u015fen piyasalardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f etkenin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yerel merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini bast\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortam, agresif Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinde geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Asya merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131rsa bile k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde para birimleri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabiliyor. Bu desenin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla won veya rupiah i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe oynama konusunda aceleci olunmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 Asya\u2019y\u0131 zorluyor: Kore\u2019de %3,1 enflasyona ra\u011fmen won zay\u0131f, BoK s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; Endonezya\u2019da enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi, PMI k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Strateji: USD\/KRW call, USD\/IDR straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}