DJIA vadeli i\u015flemleri, Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 50.800\u2019e do\u011fru ya\u015fanan erken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften toparlanarak yeniden 51.000\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ABD a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 51.100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yeniden geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu hareket, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc nakit seans\u0131n tonuna yak\u0131n bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc korudu; S&P 500 rekor seviyeden kapan\u0131rken Nasdaq Composite daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans sergiledi, VIX ise 16 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Enerji taraf\u0131nda Brent, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki tehditler nedeniyle pazartesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde %7\u2019yi a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydettikten sonra art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019e kadar t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi; sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ise 94 dolar civar\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015fedi. WTI 92 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik mesajlar ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle arabulucu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, yar\u0131 resm\u00ee kaynaklar daha sonra Beyrut\u2019u bombalama tehditlerinin ard\u0131ndan ileti\u015fimin durdu\u011funu bildirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019li yetkililer m\u00fczakerelerin aktif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, Senato D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Komitesi\u2019ne g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin arabulucular \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130slamabad\u2019da Pakistan arac\u0131l\u0131 bir kanala at\u0131fta bulundu; ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015fetmesi ve ko\u015fullu n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, nisan ay\u0131 JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 6,88 milyonluk beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 7,618 milyon geldi. Veri; ISM Hizmet PMI, ADP, Fed\u2019in Bej Kitap raporu ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak (\u00f6nceki 115 bin sonras\u0131) 85 bin art\u0131\u015f beklenen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) \u00f6ncesine denk geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, VIX\u2019in 16 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayraklar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. Bu durum rehavete i\u015faret ediyor ve SPX gibi endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 derecede ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Biz bunu, piyasan\u0131n ger\u00e7ek riski fiyatlamak zorunda kalmas\u0131 halinde ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim en yak\u0131n vadeli risk; zira k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri her g\u00fcn buradan ge\u00e7iyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 94 dolar civar\u0131na gev\u015femi\u015f olsa da, bu gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na oynayacak do\u011frudan bir yol olarak enerji hisselerinde veya petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Ger\u00e7ek bir kapanma senaryosu, son fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
7,6 milyonun \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f g\u00f6steren beklenmedik derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc JOLTS verisinin ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunu da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Piyasa beklentisi zay\u0131f bir 85 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; ancak daha s\u0131cak bir veri, Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir. Bu da \u015fok etkisi yaratabilir ve a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli putlar\u0131 taktiksel bir hamle h\u00e2line getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Dow taraf\u0131nda her \u015fey 51.000 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. \u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik m\u00fczakerelerin veya istihdam raporunun sonucunu tahmin etme zorunlulu\u011funu azalt\u0131rken, rehavetin bozulaca\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoya pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rehavete kap\u0131lmay\u0131n: Dow 51.000 \u00fcst\u00fcnde dalgalan\u0131rken VIX 16\u2019da. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc oynat\u0131yor, JOLTS g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. NFP \u00f6ncesi ucuz put\/straddle ve enerji call\u2019lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49288\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}