\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyrekte zay\u0131f gelen GSYH\u2019si, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki \u00e7eyreklik bazda %2,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi \u00e7eyreklik %0,6 artt\u0131 ve stoklar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 verdi. Reel harcanabilir gelir y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,0 y\u00fckselerek talebe bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bloomberg anketi, bu y\u0131l T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu kombinasyon, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n politika duru\u015funu sabit tutabilece\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak enflasyon verileri vergi de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri nedeniyle karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin nihai veriler, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %-0,1 oldu\u011funu, enerji hari\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn yatay seyretti\u011fini ve CPIF\u2019in y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; ayn\u0131 Bloomberg anketi, may\u0131sta T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,3\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken Riksbank CPIF\u2019te %2\u2019yi hedefliyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, eyl\u00fclde 2026 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki KDV\u2019yi yar\u0131ya indirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve KDV indirimi nisanda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girerek yak\u0131n vadeli okumalar\u0131 potansiyel olarak \u00e7arp\u0131tt\u0131. Riksbank toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, faizler de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken dahi \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olanlar dahil yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon risklerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felere i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130sve\u00e7\u2019ten gelen son d\u00f6nemdeki yumu\u015fak ekonomik verilerin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte GSYH, kamu harcamalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle daral\u0131rken, \u00f6nemli sinyal hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n reel gelirlerdeki art\u0131\u015fla desteklenerek ger\u00e7ekten b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu t\u00fcketici g\u00fcc\u00fc, man\u015fet rakam\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha sa\u011flam bir temel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon okumalar\u0131, nisanda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren g\u0131dada ge\u00e7ici KDV indirimi nedeniyle yapay bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. Altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n birikti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, \u0130statistik \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in (Statistics Sweden) may\u0131s CPIF enflasyonunun %1,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren ve piyasalar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %1,3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda s\u00fcrpriz yaratan son verileriyle de destekleniyor. Bu, KDV indiriminin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici rahatlaman\u0131n \u015fimdiden s\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek bask\u0131lar\u0131n geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Riksbank\u2019\u0131n kendi tutanaklar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n sand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazla enflasyon odakl\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yetkililer, \u0130ran\u2019daki devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma gibi jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin sevkiyat ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye devam etmesi nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerden endi\u015feli. Enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 daha geni\u015f tabana yay\u0131larak artmaya devam ederse, harekete ge\u00e7me isteklerini hafife almamak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2021-2022 d\u00f6nemine benziyor; ilk enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 hafife al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan merkez bankalar\u0131 agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, piyasan\u0131n gelecekte Riksbank faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130\u015flemciler, \u0130sve\u00e7 k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit \u00f6demeyi (pay fixed) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile olas\u0131 Riksbank aksiyonu aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130sve\u00e7 kronunun (SEK) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Daha \u015fahin bir merkez bankas\u0131, SEK g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r olabilir. Para politikas\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda krona al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f resmi veriler ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin alt tonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki belirgin uyu\u015fmazl\u0131k, anlaml\u0131 bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6zellikle bir sonraki enflasyon verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili bilgileri sindirdi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/SEK kurunda opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 almak etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan tablo: \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te zay\u0131f GSYH kamu harcamalar\u0131ndan, hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. KDV indirimi enflasyonu yapay bask\u0131l\u0131yor; CPIF s\u00fcrprizi riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Riksbank \u015fahinle\u015febilir, SEK g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49281\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}