Macaristan\u2019\u0131n son GSYH verisi, ekonominin durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; ancak ilk \u00e7eyrekteki iyile\u015fme ge\u00e7ici, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesine \u00f6zg\u00fc etkilerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. ING, 2026\u2019da GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %1,5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; b\u00fcy\u00fcmede t\u00fcketimin \u00f6nc\u00fc olmas\u0131 beklenirken, yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6nceki tek seferlik destekler etkisini yitirirken enerji fiyat \u015fokunun kal\u0131c\u0131 izlerinin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki veriler, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u00e7 talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ihracat daralmaya devam ederken ithalat\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonunu son \u00e7eyreklere k\u0131yasla daha dengesiz hale getirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Net ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k performans\u0131 4,5 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, i\u00e7 talep 6,2 puanl\u0131k katk\u0131yla bunu telafi etti; t\u00fcketim ve stok birikimi neredeyse e\u015fit \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik incelemeler ve ge\u00e7ici ask\u0131ya almalar, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde aktivite toparlanmadan \u00f6nce k\u0131sa vadeli r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviren unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise jeopolitik belirsizlik, artan \u00fcretim maliyetleri ve Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olas\u0131 tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131s\u0131tlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Macaristan i\u00e7in son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen olumlu GSYH rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 buluyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir toparlanmadan ziyade ge\u00e7ici, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi harcamalarla beslendi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum, alttaki ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n aniden yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelebilece\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir tablo yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yap\u0131s\u0131 endi\u015fe verici; daralan ihracat ve h\u0131zla artan ithalat belirgin bir dengesizlik olu\u015fturuyor. Bu, Macar Forinti \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve piyasan\u0131n bu riski yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/HUF h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 402\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi; man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ici i\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7 ile zay\u0131f d\u0131\u015f ticaret aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Forint\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; tarihsel veriler, kamu te\u015fviklerinin ard\u0131ndan temeller yeniden belirleyici oldu\u011funda para biriminin sert tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcketimin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyon almay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 da zor bir konumda; bu durum faiz t\u00fcrevlerini de karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son enflasyon verisi %4,1 ile beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi; bu da zay\u0131flayan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulabilecek faiz indirimlerini engelleyecek. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile resesyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nma aras\u0131ndaki bu politika gerilimi, piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle artan maliyetler ve jeopolitik ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan ihracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u015firketler nedeniyle BUX endeksine temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi harcamalar\u0131n do\u011frudan sonucu olan artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, orta vadede t\u00fcm piyasa i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturuyor. Bu ge\u00e7ici b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla endeks \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Macaristan\u2019da GSYH s\u00fcrprizi aldat\u0131c\u0131: se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi t\u00fcketimle gelen k\u0131sa soluklu toparlanma. ING 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,5 diyor; yat\u0131r\u0131m zay\u0131f, net ihracat negatif. Forint, enflasyon ve BUX\u2019ta oynakl\u0131k riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}