{"id":49273,"date":"2026-06-02T18:27:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T18:27:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ism-imalat-endeksi-dort-yilin-zirvesine-cikti-enflasyon-riskleri-artarken-fedin-uzun-sureli-bekle-gor-durusu-icin-gerekce-guclendi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T18:27:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T18:27:59","slug":"ism-imalat-endeksi-dort-yilin-zirvesine-cikti-enflasyon-riskleri-artarken-fedin-uzun-sureli-bekle-gor-durusu-icin-gerekce-guclendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ism-imalat-endeksi-dort-yilin-zirvesine-cikti-enflasyon-riskleri-artarken-fedin-uzun-sureli-bekle-gor-durusu-icin-gerekce-guclendi\/","title":{"rendered":"ISM \u0130malat Endeksi d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; enflasyon riskleri artarken Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcreli \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e g\u00fc\u00e7lendi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son ISM \u0130malat anketi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken dahi ABD ekonomisindeki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Man\u015fet endeks May\u0131s\u2019ta 54,0\u2019a y\u00fckselerek d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve genel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcme giren be\u015f alt endeksten d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131yla yay\u0131l\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Yeni sipari\u015fler de ivmelendi; bu da jeopolitik arka plana ra\u011fmen fabrika faaliyetlerinde momentumun korundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>MUFG\u2019nin ABD enflasyon bile\u015fik \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ISM imalat fiyat endeksi temel girdilerden biri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son okuma, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k hareketli bazda +2 standart sapma \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelerek bile\u015fi\u011fi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ana kaynaklar\u0131 enerji ve imalat girdileri olmaya devam ediyor; y\u00fcksek petrol ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (upstream) enflasyonu peki\u015ftirirken, yurti\u00e7i \u00fccret dinamiklerinin kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m, Fed\u2019in politika setini daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>ABD imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizleri beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutma riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. May\u0131s ISM endeksi 54,0 ile d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karak, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politikaya dayanabilen bir ekonomiye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlanan faiz indirimlerinin daha az olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faiz swaplar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, piyasa dalgal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. 14 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyreden VIX, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde fazla rehavetli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Volatilitede ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in VIX \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<h3>Enflasyon Bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve Varl\u0131k Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Enerji ve ham maddelerden kaynaklanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 enflasyonu do\u011frudan besleyerek temel endi\u015fe unsuru olmaya devam ediyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011fi ve bunun ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir seviye oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015firketlerin girdi maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadlerini (bull call spread) tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u015fahin bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, temelde ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu. ECB gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ba\u015flarken, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 sermayeyi dolara y\u00f6nlendirmeli. DXY endeksinin y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelerini test edece\u011fi beklentisiyle, Euro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Son T\u00dcFE verileri de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrederken, Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz so\u011fuma e\u011filimini tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik aktivite nedeniyle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n planlanan indirimleri ertelemek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerle benzerlik ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yak\u0131n vadede Fed gev\u015femesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 stratejiler konusunda temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok veri: ISM imalat 54,0\u2019la d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde; yeni sipari\u015fler h\u0131zland\u0131. Enerji\/emtia fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu diri tutuyor; Fed\u2019in indirimleri gecikebilir. VIX rehavetli; dolar, enerji ve volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}