Finlandiya Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve ECB yetkilisi Olli Rehn, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, bu ayki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gelebilecek herhangi bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki enflasyon risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u201csigorta\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Merkezi Frankfurt\u2019ta bulunan ECB, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in faizleri belirliyor ve ana arac\u0131 olarak bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek enflasyonu %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Para politikas\u0131, ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan y\u0131lda sekiz planl\u0131 toplant\u0131da karara ba\u011flan\u0131yor; oylamalara ulusal merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 ile aralar\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n da bulundu\u011fu alt\u0131 daim\u00ee \u00fcye kat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro, a\u00e7\u0131klamalara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi; EUR\/USD paritesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1645 seviyesinde %0,1 y\u00fckseldi. Faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde ECB, varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131 (quantitative easing) uygulayabiliyor; bu kapsamda devlet veya \u015firket tahvilleri gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131 almak \u00fczere euro yarat\u0131yor. Bu ad\u0131m genellikle para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve 2009-11 d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve pandemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (quantitative tightening) ise net tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurarak ve vadesi gelen anapara geri \u00f6demelerinin yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirilmesini sonland\u0131rarak bu duru\u015fu tersine \u00e7evirir; bu de\u011fi\u015fim genel olarak euroyu destekleyici kabul edilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 yetkililerinden gelen son yorumlar\u0131, daha \u015fahin bir politika duru\u015fu i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir \u201csigorta\u201d hamlesi olarak sunulmas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin piyasalar\u0131n \u015fu anda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha fazla enflasyon endi\u015fesi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in Euro pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmemize neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son \u201cflash\u201d tahminiyle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: May\u0131s 2026 enflasyonu %2,8 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun da kat\u0131 seyretmesiyle, \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Euro\u2019nun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine oynuyoruz. ECB\u2019nin politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelebilecek olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla EUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,0950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 1,1100\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareket giderek daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 bu belirsizli\u011fi yava\u015f yava\u015f yans\u0131t\u0131yor; EUR\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite son bir haftada %5,5\u2019ten %6,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n korunma almaya ve beklenenden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kurmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Volatilitedeki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, pozisyon almak i\u00e7in erken ancak maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan engelleyici olmayan bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 Euro i\u00e7in belirgin bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; Temmuz 2022\u2019de ba\u015flayan agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fiydi. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nem, paritenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda e\u015fit seviyeye kadar gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. \u00d6l\u00e7ek daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsa da, duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu ilk de\u011fi\u015fime benzer paralellikler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrpriz g\u00fcvercin karar riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlar ancak \u00f6denen primi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc daha muhafazak\u00e2r \u015fekilde ifade etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. ECB\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 halinde sermayeyi korurken, olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019den \u201csigorta\u201d niteli\u011finde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 mesaj\u0131 \u015fahin alg\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; Euro s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Enflasyon %2,8\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan. Piyasa tam fiyatlam\u0131yor; EUR\/USD\u2019de call ve bull spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49270\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}