Hindistan Rupisi, Sal\u0131 \u00f6\u011fleden sonra ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse yatay seyretti; petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar y\u00f6n konusunda belirsizlik yarat\u0131rken USD\/INR 95,00 civar\u0131nda gezindi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda WTI %1,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 90 dolar civar\u0131na inerken, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu t\u00fcr hareketler Hindistan gibi petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ekonomiler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabiliyor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilirken, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ate\u015fkesi uzatmak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta i\u00e7inde anla\u015fma bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; daha sonra da \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler, Repo Faizi\u2019nin %5,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve buna \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirme e\u015flik etmesi beklentisinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Haziran\u2019\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda olup Hindistan hisselerinde 3.911,68 crore rupilik sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. ABD veri taraf\u0131nda, Nisan JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 14:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; beklenti 6,82 milyon ile Mart\u2019taki 6,866 milyonun alt\u0131nda, bu da Fed beklentilerini \u015fekillendiriyor. Teknik olarak USD\/INR 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,38\u2019in alt\u0131nda bulunurken 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 49,5 civar\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 95,39 ve 95,67 b\u00f6lgelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, destek seviyeleri 94,46 ve 94,00 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesinin 95,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini izliyoruz; parite, birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen bask\u0131lar aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Hindistan i\u00e7in temel bir olumsuzluk olan y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni \u015f\u00fcphelerle beslenmesi nedeniyle bulan\u0131k. Bu belirsizlik, para birimi i\u00e7in gergin bir bekleyi\u015f ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f, Rupi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tehdit. Hindistan ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr ve enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckler. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin durmas\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan \u00fczerinden gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bo\u011fazlardan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda arz kesintisi riski, enerji maliyetleri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma, t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda olacak. RBI\u2019nin repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak pahal\u0131 petrol\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyonist tehditle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesini bekliyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu krizinin ortas\u0131nda kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netimine ili\u015fkin Vali Sanjay Malhotra\u2019dan gelecek olas\u0131 mesajlar kritik olacak.<\/p>\n
Bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur olarak, yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII) Haziran\u2019a net sat\u0131c\u0131 ba\u015flayarak ay\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Hindistan hisselerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.000 crore rupi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve tarihsel olarak Rupiyi zay\u0131flatan yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. S\u00fcregelen sat\u0131\u015flar, enerji \u015foku kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair tedirginli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 verisini izliyoruz. 6,82 milyonluk istihdam a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmini hafif bir gerilemeye i\u015faret etse de, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi beklentisini kuvvetlendirerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda USD\/INR\u2019nin bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; teknik analiz 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 95,38 seviyesinde diren\u00e7 ve 94,46 \u00e7evresinde destek g\u00f6steriyor. RBI toplant\u0131s\u0131 veya \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik geli\u015fme sonras\u0131nda oynakl\u0131kta olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanabilecek straddle ya da strangle gibi opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir hareketten yararlanacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi nefesini tuttu: Petrol ve jeopolitik dalga USD\/INR\u2019yi 95,00 band\u0131nda kilitliyor. G\u00f6zler Cuma RBI\u2019de (\u015fahin ton), FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ve ABD JOLTS verisinde; 94,46 destek, 95,67 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49268\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}