Euro B\u00f6lgesi Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) enflasyonu, ayl\u0131k bazda May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,1\u2019e gerileyerek \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %1 seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6nceki veriye k\u0131yasla blok genelinde ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kesti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
%1\u2019den %0,1\u2019e yava\u015flama, May\u0131s\u2019ta fiyatlar\u0131n Nisan seviyelerine g\u00f6re yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek HICP ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon ivmesini t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00fcncelleme, Euro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet endeksine ili\u015fkin olup uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stergedeki son ayl\u0131k harekete dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k enflasyondaki bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Bu verinin, ECB\u2019nin Temmuz veya Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Piyasalar\u0131n art\u0131k daha g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faizlere ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm ileri vadeli e\u011friyi yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz swaplar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ayarl\u0131yor, gelecekte bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynuyoruz. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar yaln\u0131zca bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimi fiyatlayan gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS), h\u0131zla iki hatta \u00fc\u00e7 indirimi fiyatlamaya y\u00f6neliyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e de\u011feri artaca\u011f\u0131ndan Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvercin bir ECB\u2019nin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) h\u00e2l\u00e2 temkinli sinyal verdi\u011fi bir ortamda euroyu zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 muhtemel. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,0950 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD kurunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,0700 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 desteklemesi nedeniyle Avrupa hisseleri i\u00e7in olumlu. EURO STOXX 50 endeksi \u00fczerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu strateji, hisse piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yatay ya da y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu bir senaryoda prim geliri elde etmeyi sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyondaki yava\u015flama, zay\u0131flayan ekonomik verilerle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor; ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yaln\u0131zca %0,1 ile c\u0131l\u0131z kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019a gerileyerek ECB\u2019ye ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in net bir alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2011-2012 d\u00f6neminde ECB, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama ve h\u0131zla gerileyen enflasyonun olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ikili tehditle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz indirimine gitmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz dezenflasyon: Euro B\u00f6lgesi ayl\u0131k HICP May\u0131s\u2019ta %1\u2019den %0,1\u2019e indi. ECB\u2019de Temmuz\/Eyl\u00fcl faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor; euro zay\u0131flayabilir, hisseler destek bulur, Euribor long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49267"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49267\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}