{"id":49265,"date":"2026-06-02T12:28:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T12:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generale-piyasalar-polonyada-parasal-sikilasmayi-fiyatlarken-nbpnin-faizi-375te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T12:28:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T12:28:02","slug":"societe-generale-piyasalar-polonyada-parasal-sikilasmayi-fiyatlarken-nbpnin-faizi-375te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generale-piyasalar-polonyada-parasal-sikilasmayi-fiyatlarken-nbpnin-faizi-375te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale, piyasalar Polonya\u2019da parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlarken NBP’nin faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Societe Generale, Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (NBP) politika faizini %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ile 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyor. Enflasyonun, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 ve \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %3,0 seviyesinde olmas\u0131yla, merkezin %1,5\u2013%3,5 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Ekonomik aktivite de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: 1\u00c7 GSYH \u00e7eyreklik %0,6, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ise farkl\u0131 bir patikaya i\u015faret ediyor. Para piyasalar\u0131 Polonya i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ima ederken, Macaristan i\u00e7in 71 baz puan gev\u015feme fiyatlan\u0131yor. Kaynak metin ayr\u0131ca maliye bakan\u0131 Domanski\u2019nin enflasyon verisi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme revizyonuna ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131yor ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda HUF ile yerel tahvillerin PLN\u2019ye k\u0131yasla g\u00f6reli performans\u0131n\u0131 sorgulayan bir de\u011ferlendirme i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Beklentisi ile Merkez Bankas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Piyasan\u0131n beklentileri ile Polonya faizlerinin muhtemel seyri aras\u0131nda belirgin bir uyumsuzluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Para piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,75 oran\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak bize g\u00f6re Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBP) politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutacak. Bu da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze kat\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

NBP\u2019nin beklemede kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik arg\u00fcman g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve son verilerle destekleniyor. %3,1\u2019lik man\u015fet enflasyon, merkezin %1,5\u2013%3,5 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n rahatl\u0131kla i\u00e7inde. Ekonomi de y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5\u2019lik GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle iyi performans g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n, %5,0 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederek ekonominin ne a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ne de ek te\u015fvike ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Polonya faizlerinin piyasan\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosuna pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu, beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan i\u015flemleri\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive fixed)\u2014i\u00e7erir. Tarihsel olarak piyasa bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n niyetini bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sonradan gelen d\u00fczeltme olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabiliyor.<\/p>\n

Polonya-Macaristan G\u00f6reli De\u011fer ve Kur G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Polonya ile Macaristan\u2019\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da cazip bir g\u00f6reli de\u011fer f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasalar Polonya\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlarken, Macaristan\u2019da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir politika faizinden s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc kapsam\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,71\u2019lik faiz indirimi bekliyor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 bir NBP ile g\u00fcvercin e\u011filimli Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Polonya Zlotisi\u2019ni desteklemeli.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Zloti\u2019nin Macar Forinti kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri cazip buluyoruz. Buna, vadeli d\u00f6viz (FX forward) ya da opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla PLN\/HUF\u2019ta uzun pozisyon almak dahil olabilir. Temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7 net: istikrarl\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek getirili bir para birimi, faiz oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen bir para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 genellikle daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar Polonya\u2019da 75 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatlarken SocGen, NBP\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te 2026\/2H\u20132027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar sabitlemesini bekliyor; enflasyon hedefte, b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. G\u00f6reli de\u011fer: PLN\/HUF uzun.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49265\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}