EUR\/USD, dikkatlerin Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndaki (ECB) haziran toplant\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7evrilmesiyle bant i\u00e7inde kalmaya devam ederken, tek para birimi 1,14 ile 1,18 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konsolide oluyor. Parite daha \u00f6nce ocak ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda y\u0131l i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 1,2081\u2019i g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan Operation Epic Fury\u2019nin ba\u015flamas\u0131yla yatay seyre ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 dolar endeksine de uzanm\u0131\u015f durumda; Euro\u2019da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyelerin yeniden test edilebilmesi i\u00e7in dolar endeksinde ilave zay\u0131flama gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB cephesinde beklentiler, 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir \u201csigorta\u201d hamlesinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; bu ad\u0131m\u0131n mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon tahminlerini de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna paralel olarak, EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,18 direncini test edebilmesi i\u00e7in DXY\u2019nin ge\u00e7en ayki 98,9\u201395,0 band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade edilirken, haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 dolar\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir durak olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayki kritik merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 11 Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir \u201csigorta\u201d faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ad\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmininin may\u0131s enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 ECB hedefinin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Operation Epic Fury\u2019den bu yana EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,14 ile 1,18 aras\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite satman\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesi piyasa tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla bu prim merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oluyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) de son d\u00f6nemdeki 95,0\u201398,9 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son veriler, Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00e7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksinin nisan ay\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ortaya koydu; bu da Fed\u2019in sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, paritenin neden bu kadar s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti\u011finin temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc izlemesi gerekiyor; beklenenden daha \u015fahin bir yukar\u0131 revizyon, 1,18 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin test edilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc sa\u011flayabilir. Ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, ayn\u0131 anda DXY\u2019nin de destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesini gerektirir. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene kadar, strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi bant hareketinden getiri sa\u011flayan stratejileri tercih ediyor, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed-ECB haziran randevusu: EUR\/USD 1,14\u20131,18 band\u0131nda kilitli. ECB\u2019den 25 bp \u201csigorta\u201d art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u015fahin revizyon beklentisi var; 1,18 i\u00e7in DXY\u2019nin 95 alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49262"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49262\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}